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Post by Andy K on Apr 17, 2021 17:26:37 GMT
Update from 17th April - Max points (with number of wins needed from us for that side not able to pass us)
Hartlepool - 85 (6) Sutton - 93 Torquay - 90 (8) Stockport - 83 (6) Wrexham - 77 (4) Halifax - 80 (5) Chesterfield - 82 (5) Notts - 82 (5) Bromley - 76 (4) Eastleigh - 74 (3) Boreham Wood - 69 (1) Aldershot - 71 (2) Dagenham - 67 (0) Solihull - 72 (2) Yeovil - 72 (2) Maidenhead - 77 (4) Altrincham - 62 (0) Wealdstone - 60 (0) Woking - 62 (0) Weymouth - 57 (0) Kings Lynn - 57 (0) Barnet - 50 (0)
So 6 wins will give us 2nd place. 8 wins in the last nine will give us the title. 5 wins will make certain a play off place, regardless of whatever other sides do.
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kpinwp
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 17, 2021 19:33:25 GMT
Yeah, it's getting harder to see how Hartlepool hang onto the ground that they've gained. They'd need both Torquay and ourselvs to start slipping up quite badly, simultaineously.
It's also getting harder to see us finishing outside of the top three, tbh.
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Post by brisfitboy on Apr 19, 2021 11:36:42 GMT
Just a thought 💭 Hartlepool are stuffing Wealdstone and then let them score 2 goals in quick succession, overconfidence or was it because it was near the end? That not what champions are made of is it.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 19, 2021 13:43:28 GMT
Those two late Wealdstone goals did put a little dent in Hartlepool's improving goal difference. The pressure in any case is on them to win all six of their remaining games (including their final scheduled match, at GGL on 22 May). Just a couple of points dropped could be the difference between finishing 1st and 3rd.
We and (to a lesser extent) Torquay have more of a margin for error.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 19, 2021 13:56:21 GMT
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oohaah
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Post by oohaah on Apr 19, 2021 14:22:07 GMT
And here is my updated (and just for fun) 'levelled up' table with just 6 games to go. In brackets are each teams home and away games left against fellow 'top 10ers'
Sutton United 36 55 27 69 (1 2) Hartlepool 36 54 33 67 (1 2) Torquay Utd 36 53 31 66 (3 2) Stockport C 36 52 28 61 (1 1) Chesterfield 36 44 31 56 (2 4) Notts County 36 42 30 56 (2 4) FC Halifax 36 53 43 56 (3 1) Wrexham FC 36 48 33 55 (2 0) Bromley FC 36 52 46 54 (3 3) Eastleigh FC 36 37 33 52 (2 1)
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Post by Andy K on Apr 21, 2021 10:25:51 GMT
Max points update after 20th April games (with number of wins we need to be equal or above each side)
Hartlepool - 85 (7) Sutton - 93 Torquay - 90 (8) Stockport - 83 (6) Halifax - 80 (5) Wrexham - 77 (4) Chesterfield - 79 (5) Notts County - 82 (6) Bromley - 76 - (4) Eastleigh - 74 - (3) Boreham Wood - 67 - (1) Aldershot - 69 - (1) Maidenhead - 77 - (4) Dagenham - 67 - (1) Solihull - 72 - (2) Yeovil - 72 - (2) Altrincham - 62 - (0) Wealdstone - 57 (0) Woking - 59 (0) Weymouth - 57 (0) Kings Lynn - 55 (0) Barnet - 48 (0)
Looking at this in more practical terms, even though possibly 65 points would be enough for a play off spot, I'd say Dagenham, Boreham Wood and Aldershot won't make the cut, and even Bromley and Eastleigh will need to have a great run and hoping other sides slip up to sneak in. It's possible one of them may just do it, but not both.
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oohaah
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Post by oohaah on Apr 22, 2021 7:30:22 GMT
Due to Hartlepool not playing, 'my levelled up' top 10 table still shows 6 games to go. Barnet's three match unbeaten run is a concern.
Sutton United 36 55 27 69 Torquay Utd 36 55 31 68 Hartlepool 36 54 33 67 Stockport C 36 52 28 61 FC Halifax 36 55 44 58 Notts County 36 42 30 56 Wrexham FC 36 48 33 55 Chesterfield 36 45 33 55 Bromley FC 36 52 46 54 Eastleigh FC 36 37 33 52
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Post by Andy K on Apr 26, 2021 9:01:27 GMT
Updated max points table 24th April
Torquay - 88 Hartlepool - 85 Sutton - 90 Stockport - 83 Halifax - 77 Bromley - 76 Wrexham - 75 Chesterfield - 77 Notts C - 80 Eastleigh - 74 Aldershot - 69 Maidenhead - 77 Boreham Wood - 66 Dagenham - 69 Solihull - 72 Yeovil - 69 Altrincham - 59 Wealdstone - 54 Woking - 56 Weymouth - 57 Kings Lynn - 52 Barnet - 48
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oohaah
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Post by oohaah on Apr 26, 2021 13:19:11 GMT
Levelled up again, and STILL with just 6 games to go. As others have said we are just about in the hands of our own destiny. It is surely now down to a four horse race.
Sutton United 36 55 28 68 Torquay Utd 36 57 33 68 Hartlepool 36 54 33 67 Stockport C 36 55 28 63 FC Halifax 36 56 46 57 Notts County 36 44 32 56 Bromley FC 36 54 47 56 Wrexham FC 36 48 33 55 Chesterfield 36 45 33 55 Eastleigh FC 36 38 33 54
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Post by os on Apr 26, 2021 20:04:45 GMT
The predicted table suggests we need one more win to secure a playoff place, the bar is set at 69pts
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Post by Andy K on Apr 28, 2021 7:54:34 GMT
Max points table after 27th April games (with games needed by us to equal or beat their max score with 7 games remaining)
Torquay - 88 (7) Sutton - 90 Hartlepool - 85 (6) Stockport - 83 (5) Halifax - 77 (3) Chesterfield - 77 (3) Eastleigh - 74 (2) Bromley - 73 (2) Wrexham - 75 (2) Notts - 77 (3) Aldershot - 66 Maidenhead - 74 (2) Boreham Wood - 64 Dagenham - 67 Solihull - 69 Yeovil - 69 Altrincham - 59 Weymouth - 57 Wealdstone - 55 Woking - 52 Kings Lynn - 49 Barnet - 44
It's now mathematically impossible for us to finish lower than 10th. 2 more wins will see us qualify for a play off spot.
Following os's point from yesterday, the predicted final table now sets the bar for a play off spot at 68 points.
This table could change significantly on Saturday - 5th play 4th (Halifax v Stockport), 1st play 7th (Torquay v Eastleigh) and 3rd play 6th (Hartlepool v Chesterfield). For those into these things, Football Web pages predict wins for Stockport, Hartlepool and Torquay.
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trev
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Post by trev on Apr 28, 2021 8:08:43 GMT
As an aside, our current points tally (69) is already the 2nd highest number of points we've achieved at this level of the football pyramid. We are however still 10 points away from our highest points haul of 79, when we finished 3rd in the 2017/18 season
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Post by garethl on Apr 28, 2021 8:16:38 GMT
That 79 was presumably a season with 4 more matches than we’ll play this time out.
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trev
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Post by trev on Apr 28, 2021 8:21:28 GMT
That 79 was presumably a season with 4 more matches than we’ll play this time out. Absolutely. Which in the more than likely event that we surpass that total this season, will make the achievement all the more impressive.
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