amberchoc
1st team Player
Blessed is the person who having nothing to say abstains from giving us wordy evidence of the fact.
Posts: 1,501 
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Post by amberchoc on Apr 8, 2021 10:26:38 GMT
On Saturday we find ourselves without a fixture and potentially losing top spot to Hartlepool, despite having multiple games in hand on them. I guess the best result for us in the Hartlepool v Notts County match would be a draw. What seems clear is that a decisive result either way would make it incredibly difficult for the losers to finish as champions. By the time that match kick-offs at 5.20, Torquay may well have strengthened their challenge with what looks, on paper, to be a straightforward home game against lowly Weymouth. I’ve noticed, however, that the Gulls have been struggling to find the back of the net, with only 6 goals in their last 9 games in all competitions, so it may yet prove trickier for them on grass than on paper! The other important game that has a bearing on the top of the table sees Wrexham with a third consecutive opportunity to hand one of our rivals 3 points when they host Stockport. Perhaps this time they can pull their collective digits out and get some kind of favourable result for us.
I don’t really envisage any team below 5th to have much chance of winning the title, despite Chesterfield being on a fine run of victories since we beat them on their own patch.
Aldershot v Yeovil
Altrincham v Halifax
Boreham Wood v Wealdstone
Bromley v Dagenham & Redbridge
Eastleigh v Woking
Hartlepool v Notts County (5.20)
Kings Lynn v Chesterfield
Maidenhead v Barnet
Torquay v Weymouth
Wrexham v Stockport County
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Post by Andy K on Apr 8, 2021 10:59:44 GMT
A draw for Pools v County is obviously a good result for us, but I won't be upset if Hartlepool win, even if it means they go top. They'd be a point ahead of us whilst we have 4 games in hand. I see Notts and Torquay as being the only really serious challengers for the top spot. I just think Hartlepool are too little, too late, and I think by the end of the season they won't be in the top 3, especially as their last game of the season is away at our place (as they were due to play Dover on the last day of the season).
Not being top come Saturday evening won't matter if we are top come the evening of 29th May.
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Steve D
Youth Team Player
Posts: 117
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Post by Steve D on Apr 8, 2021 13:41:36 GMT
The predicted final table on Football Web Pages currently has us winning the title on 89 points, with Torquay and Stockport in 2nd and 3rd on 78 points and Hartlepool in 4th on 77 points. Notts County are predicted to finish 6th on 72 points. From that, I would say a Notts win would be preferably to a Hartlepool win. Agree that a draw would be perfect.
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Post by bailo on Apr 8, 2021 15:10:38 GMT
The predicted final table on Football Web Pages currently has us winning the title on 89 points, with Torquay and Stockport in 2nd and 3rd on 78 points and Hartlepool in 4th on 77 points. Notts County are predicted to finish 6th on 72 points. From that, I would say a Notts win would be preferably to a Hartlepool win. Agree that a draw would be perfect. Careful...don't want to go stirring things up with permutations  The Hartlepool assessment seems quite likely but I think Torquay and Notts are a touch undervalued. As much as I'd like to imagine that Sutton could win the league by 11 points and have it all wrapped up by Woking (?), I somehow doubt it will be quite that simple. |
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amberchoc
1st team Player
Blessed is the person who having nothing to say abstains from giving us wordy evidence of the fact.
Posts: 1,501
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Post by amberchoc on Apr 8, 2021 16:21:23 GMT
A note of caution is very much warranted. If results don’t go our way over the next 5 days we could find ourselves down in third place on Tuesday night, with only one game in hand on Torquay. As the old proverb goes, there’s many a slip ‘twixt the cup and the lip.
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Post by os on Apr 8, 2021 22:23:35 GMT
It is really impossible with so many games still to go to work out all the permutations but what you can do is something like this :
1 Sutton United - 31 63 17.6 80.6
3 Torquay United - 31 57 23.1 80.1
5 Notts County - 29 52 27.3 79.3
2 Hartlepool U - 34 61 16.8 77.8
6 Chesterfield - 29 48 27.3 75.3
4 Stockport Cty - 31 52 23.1 75.1
7 FC Halifax Town - 30 47 25.2 72.2
8 Wrexham - 31 47 23.1 70.1
No team other than Sutton have managed more than 2pts per game so far over the season. If you look at the form table over 6 - 10 matches you will see the top sides average around 2.1pts or there about. The table above is based on all sides below Sutton hitting what would normally be top form all given an average of 2.1pts per remaining match apart from Sutton given 1.6pts per match.
What is shows is that 81pts (give or take a point) will take the title unless one team puts together a run of form = something around 2.5pts per game and that really means almost winning every match which is possible but unlikely and rare
The table also suggests 70pts is needed for a playoff place. The other thing about the above is its not that far off the predicted table on footballwebpages.
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Post by VCLXI on Apr 9, 2021 0:26:00 GMT
All of these permutations and calculations with final and predicted tables are all well and good. But I think people are missing the most important thing here.
If Sutton get promoted then I will be able to manage them in FIFA 22.
Agreed, not many people will care about that but still.
Plus these permutations and calculations would flummox Rachel Riley even more than Billy's riddle!
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Post by Del on Apr 9, 2021 8:50:16 GMT
We will be fine as long as we can turn some of these draws into wins starting with Torquay on Tuesday.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 9, 2021 16:04:11 GMT
The predicted final table on Football Web Pages currently has us winning the title on 89 points, with Torquay and Stockport in 2nd and 3rd on 78 points and Hartlepool in 4th on 77 points. Notts County are predicted to finish 6th on 72 points. From that, I would say a Notts win would be preferably to a Hartlepool win. Agree that a draw would be perfect. It's always interesting to see how their predicted final table works. Just for interest (as we're not playing) here are their predicted scores and percentages for this weekend's games Saturday 10th April 2021 Home Draw Away Altrincham 1 1 FC Halifax Town 42.2% 26.4% 31.4% Boreham Wood 2 0 Wealdstone 75.6% 15.8% 8.6% Bromley 2 1 Dagenham & Redbridge 63.4% 18.2% 18.4% Eastleigh 1 0 Woking 68.8% 23.1% 8.2% Hartlepool United 1 0 Notts County 41.9% 31.7% 26.4% King's Lynn Town 1 1 Chesterfield 40.6% 23.8% 35.6% Maidenhead United 4 1 Barnet 88.9% 6.5% 4.0% Torquay United 1 0 Weymouth 70.3% 19.5% 10.1% Wrexham 1 0 Stockport County 53.7% 26.0% 20.4% Note how they've predicted no away wins |
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Post by simon on Apr 9, 2021 16:22:32 GMT
The predicted final table on Football Web Pages currently has us winning the title on 89 points, with Torquay and Stockport in 2nd and 3rd on 78 points and Hartlepool in 4th on 77 points. Notts County are predicted to finish 6th on 72 points. From that, I would say a Notts win would be preferably to a Hartlepool win. Agree that a draw would be perfect. It's always interesting to see how their predicted final table works. Just for interest (as we're not playing) here are their predicted scores and percentages for this weekend's games Saturday 10th April 2021 Home Draw Away Altrincham 1 1 FC Halifax Town 42.2% 26.4% 31.4% Boreham Wood 2 0 Wealdstone 75.6% 15.8% 8.6% Bromley 2 1 Dagenham & Redbridge 63.4% 18.2% 18.4% Eastleigh 1 0 Woking 68.8% 23.1% 8.2% Hartlepool United 1 0 Notts County 41.9% 31.7% 26.4% King's Lynn Town 1 1 Chesterfield 40.6% 23.8% 35.6% Maidenhead United 4 1 Barnet 88.9% 6.5% 4.0% Torquay United 1 0 Weymouth 70.3% 19.5% 10.1% Wrexham 1 0 Stockport County 53.7% 26.0% 20.4% Note how they've predicted no away wins To be fair though I think I can only see 1 away win in those matches and that's chesterfield. I think stockport and notts county will probably get a draw. |
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Post by Andy K on Apr 9, 2021 18:22:43 GMT
I'm not so sure about that. I can see Halifax winning at Altrincham. And as it sounds like Hartlepool's first choice keeper is out for the rest of the season, the game that matters most to us could go any way. Hartlepool have the best home form in the league at the moment and Notts Country have the best away form in the league!
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Post by sallycat on Apr 9, 2021 18:41:09 GMT
Hartlepool have the best home form in the league at the moment and Notts Country have the best away form in the league! Nottinghamshire declaring itself independent was clearly eclipsed by other news stories today |
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,248
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 9, 2021 19:00:20 GMT
Pessimism is still mood du jour on the chasing packs' fans' forums. Except for Torquay, bless 'em.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 10, 2021 19:13:38 GMT
Not a great set of results for us today, with Hartlepool, Torquay and Stockport all winning. Hartlepool's victory does peg Notts County back, while Wrexham are now fading out of contention after losing 3-0 at home to the Hatters.
Pools claim top spot from us, but they don't play on Tuesday when a point against Torquay would take us back to the summit on goal difference. We'll of course be hoping for three points.
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Post by garethl on Apr 10, 2021 19:27:38 GMT
Thought probably the one result we got was the most important one, though Hartlepool’s consistency has definitely put them in the frame. Personally think Notts C have now left themselves too much to do and don’t look like finding the required run. Also lost Roberts to injury. Chesterfield have to come from a long way back too but look more likely to finish stronger. Stockport likewise look a fair bit back at this stage. Still think the winner will come from the top 3, Hartlepool have a nice schedule in terms of recovery time but a tough May. Torquay play Stockport, Chesterfield, Notts C and us, tough finish. All to play for.
Onto to Tuesday. A game to look forward to. We should give it a right good go.
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