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Post by Andy K on Mar 25, 2009 0:31:56 GMT
OK i've just a little exercise on predicted results of the top 9 in the run in and ive come up with this (not including goal difference...
1 Dover 42 105
2 Staines 42 91
3 Tonbridge 42 73
4 Dartford 42 68
5 Hornchurch 42 67
5 Sutton U 42 67
7 Carshalton 42 66
8 Horsham 42 64
9 Wealdstone 42 62
From the predictions ive made of all the matches involving the top 9, we are joint 5th - keeping any defeats to a minimum and having biggish wins will obviously help!
I wont bore you with all the things but here are what i've predicted for us...
Dover Athletic v Sutton United - DOVER WIN
Hendon v Sutton United SUTTON WIN
Sutton United v Dartford DARTFORD WIN
Hastings UnitedvSutton United – SUTTON WIN
Sutton UnitedvCarshalton Athletic DRAW
MargatevSutton United SUTTON WIN
Sutton UnitedvAFC Hornchurch DRAW
Which is W3 D2 L2 - thats really the minimum we can get away with I think - Dartford probably have the easiest run in, so need watching (although their form is about as good as ours at the moment) its looking more like our last game of the season will be our first play off game - lose that and we dont have any more
Football web pages predict (as at 24th March) the following
1 Dover Athletic 42 33 5 4 89 35 +54 104
2 Staines Town 42 25 12 5 77 37 +40 87
3 Tonbridge Angels 42 21 11 10 79 49 +30 74
4 Sutton United 42 18 13 11 61 52 +9 67
5 Carshalton Athletic 42 18 12 12 62 64 -2 66
6 AFC Hornchurch 42 19 7 16 57 53 +4 64
7 Horsham 42 18 6 18 56 60 -4 60
8 Wealdstone 42 17 8 17 72 60 +12 59
9 Dartford 42 16 10 16 58 53 +5 58
Although as we have all found out, this division is not predictable in any shape or form, we know what we need to do - beat the threats directly below us, and pick up as many points as possible from the other games - if we can do that, we WILL do it!!!
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Post by os on Mar 25, 2009 0:52:07 GMT
I was keeping an eye on the stats this evening and it almost assured now that 66pts will take a playoff spot simply because all the contenders are struggling. Most importantly they have all got to play each other and they cannot all win, likewise we have to play the Bobbins, Dartford and AFCH and 3 0-0 draws there would do more halm to our rivals then us.
The concerning thing is our form 3 wins in our last 13 matches is not really good enough, but on the plus side we go to Dover having not counted on getting anything from the game. We have our strongest side returning and have already beaten Dover so we go there with no fear and you start giving me 4 or 5/1 against an away win and I might just take it.
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Post by sallycat on Mar 26, 2009 12:40:18 GMT
Gosh Andy, you were up late doing that ;D
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Post by fluffy rascal on Mar 26, 2009 15:50:00 GMT
He doesn't sleep, i think he's either a Cylon or a Terminator
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Post by Amber Aleman on Mar 26, 2009 22:27:46 GMT
I more-or-less agree with Andy Nighthawk's final points prediction, though I'd swap the Hendon and Dartford results and also Margate/Hornchurch. I note the diplomatic forecast of a draw on Easter Monday.  |
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Post by os on Mar 31, 2009 23:56:00 GMT
Mathematics now a complete nightmare everyone down to Canvey now in the mix and with everyone one playing everyone else its a lottery. We need something like 3 wins in our final 5 games to get the magic 66pts, the problem is we have only won 3 of our previous 15 matches which is alarming and amazing we have not been long since gobbled up.
Dartford / Bobbins and AFCH all massive now its going down to the wire!
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Post by Rupert Scallywag on Apr 1, 2009 6:00:07 GMT
When the fixture list was produced last summer That last game MIGHT be rather important I do fortune telling at £10 a minute. And kids parties. And a kissogram in a gorilla suit. |
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Post by Andy K on Apr 5, 2009 22:05:20 GMT
As of 4th April...
We mathematically cannot finish lower than 14th
In practical terms, thinking about teams playing each other and sharing spoils and so forth, its virtually impossible for us to finish lower than 9th, even with 0 points from our remaining games
3 Wins out of 4 or 2 wins and 2 draws and we are certainly in the play offs (need 8 points now to be sure) - on a practical level 2 wins out of 4 (or 6 points) should get us there, especially if they are against Carshalton and Hornchurch
Ramsgate are relegated - although they are 12 points behind from safety and mathematically not down looking at the table, Hendon and Borehamwood have to play each other - whatever the result of that game, it will confirm Ramsgates relegation
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Post by os on Apr 5, 2009 22:40:59 GMT
And if we are really really lucky and results go our way we could secure a playoff place against the Bobbins and wouldn't that be nice  |
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Post by sallycat on Apr 8, 2009 20:26:26 GMT
That would be cosy...
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Post by Andy K on Apr 12, 2009 12:39:21 GMT
Well looking at the table now.... 4 Sutton United 39 17 12 10 54 49 +5 63 5 Carshalton Athletic 39 17 10 12 58 60 -2 61 6 Wealdstone 39 16 8 15 65 53 +12 56 7 AFC Hornchurch 38 16 8 14 51 48 +3 56 8 Maidstone United 38 14 11 13 46 45 +1 53 9 Dartford 38 14 10 14 50 47 +3 52 A win for us against Carshalton, added to defeats for Wealdstone and Hornchurch will make certain our play off place. Wealdstone need 3 victories and us to get no points to overtake us. Maidstone are in a pretty similar position to them. Its now becoming (freak results excluded) any 2 out of us, Carshalton and Hornchurch. Mathematically 5 points will secure our position although if Hornchurch fail to win any of their games, that could change - if they draw on Monday, we will only need 3 points from our last 3 games, if they lose, only 2 etc etc. After yesterdays results, its looking more like Staines, Tonbridge, Carshalton and Sutton as the play off teams - lets get those points tomorrow, make ourselves safe, and upset the apple cart below us |
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DaveF
1st team Player
Posts: 1,726
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Post by DaveF on Apr 12, 2009 21:03:46 GMT
Pressec has pointed out to me that Harrow Borough could still claim a play-off spot if they win their last 5 games.
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Post by os on Apr 12, 2009 21:26:37 GMT
Pressec has pointed out to me that Harrow Borough could still claim a play-off spot if they win their last 5 games. And what is more it means that a defeat for AFCH and win for us tomorrow does not mathamatically secure us a playoff spot if Harrow win  |
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Post by Andy K on Apr 13, 2009 21:35:37 GMT
Not the best set of results for us today but the table is now like this
4 Sutton United 40 17 13 10 55 50 +5 64
5 Carshalton Athletic 40 17 11 12 59 61 -2 62
6 Wealdstone 40 17 8 15 68 53 +15 59
7 AFC Hornchurch 39 17 8 14 54 49 +5 59
8 Dartford 39 15 10 14 54 47 +7 55
Darford can only catch up if they win all 3 and we lose both, and Wealdstone will be one point ahead if we fail to get a point. The team to watch is Hornchurch, who can get a possible 68 points. Therefore to be certain we need to win both our games. Of course Hornchurch is our last game therefore going into that game with an advantage would mean a draw will suffice (possibly at the expense of the Bobbins)
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Post by os on Apr 13, 2009 22:16:30 GMT
Although I don't advocate it as a policy we actually only need to win one game to take a play off spot and that is the AFCH game, we could lose 80-0 on Saturday at Margate as long as we win on the 25th. Bobbins have a tough task away to Hendon on the last day and AFCH will be knackered by the time they play on Saturday against Horsham after playing Harrow on Thursday night and Horsham are no mugs they will give them the run around. We could end up in the situation that a bore draw against AFCH could see both through at the expense of the Bobbins, what would we do?
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