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Post by andycapp on Apr 16, 2024 20:34:44 GMT
Game over. Season over.
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Post by sufc1898 on Apr 16, 2024 21:07:14 GMT
Not in my eyes, Not until mathematically impossible. We can still catch Colchester and Grimsby with 2 wins, and a few favours.
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Post by bailo on Apr 16, 2024 21:49:17 GMT
Not in my eyes, Not until mathematically impossible. We can still catch Colchester and Grimsby with 2 wins, and a few favours. I'd like to see the odds on this one! If nothing else, looking forward to the trip to York Road next season.
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Post by genghis on Apr 16, 2024 22:21:38 GMT
Not in my eyes, Not until mathematically impossible. We can still catch Colchester and Grimsby with 2 wins, and a few favours. I'd like to see the odds on this one! If nothing else, looking forward to the trip to York Road next season. We are considered slight favourites to beat Crawley by the bookies. It’s obviously unlikely but I wouldn’t consider it to be absurd that we might go into the final game of the season with still a chance at staying up.
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Post by FaultyyearsaU on Apr 17, 2024 6:46:07 GMT
8 goal difference with Grimsby and Colchester. Mmm ,that sounds familiar 😞😏
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Post by garethl on Apr 17, 2024 6:50:09 GMT
We just have to win the game Saturday and hope we can take it to the last day when anything can happen. Not inconceivable that Colchester lose away at Notts who will be looking to bounce back after last night and Doncaster who are flying. Unlikely yes but we have to fight to the end.
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Post by amberambler on Apr 17, 2024 8:59:14 GMT
This worthless post is for Genghis. Those worthless Colchester beat an even more worthless Grimsby and now a not so much worthless Colchester look like staying up and sutton who are not worthless look like going down
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Post by Andy K on Apr 17, 2024 10:38:02 GMT
It becomes simple on Saturday. Lose and we're down. Draw and we're almost certainly down. Win and we have a very slim chance, but that depends on Colchester losing their remaining 3 games.
They're 1 win from safety now.
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Post by paz on Apr 17, 2024 12:05:38 GMT
The good thing about knowing you are down is it did not hurt one-bit last night . We are now finding out why those results against Doncaster, Colchester and a few others were so costly. If Colchester collapse now then they will certainly deserve relegation, and if we win our next two as they do so, then we could say perhaps we deserved to sneak it. But the writing is now on the wall. If we pull it off, it will be a massive summer Bonus for me now Without going too off-topic, On the plus side. If results go our way back in the Nat league then we could have 6 games all within about an hour's drive of us, and a further 5 games between 1 to 1h30m drive. So our player and fan travel budget will be lower. We have to hope Bromley stays down, as we can't have them leap-frogging us! Bromley - 45m Aldershot - 55m Dagenham & Red bridge - 1h Ebbsfleet - 1h Woking - 50m Maidenhead - 1h 5m Wealdstone - 1h 25m Borehamwood - 1h 25m Barnet - 1h 30m Eastleigh - 1h 30m Southend - 1h 35m With possibly one of the following as well. Farnborough - 1h Hampton & Richmond - 45m Maidstone - 1h Averley - 1h Worthing - 1h 30m Chelmsford - 1h 30m If it works out almost half our away games will be relatively local, and certainly more affordable, be it via train coach or car. (Got to take the positives!)
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Post by Andy K on Apr 17, 2024 12:15:07 GMT
I can never see any positives about playing at Boreham Wood or Eastleigh.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 17, 2024 13:26:56 GMT
Talking about Boreham Wood, they have a winner takes all final match at home to Ebbsfleet - BW need to win to stay up (a draw won't be enough unless Woking lose by 5 goals or more at home to AFC Fylde).
A win for BW would send Woking down if Woking lose or Ebbsfleet down if Woking draw or win.
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Post by paz on Apr 17, 2024 14:20:47 GMT
Talking about Boreham Wood, they have a winner takes all final match at home to Ebbsfleet - BW need to win to stay up (a draw won't be enough unless Woking lose by 5 goals or more at home to AFC Fylde). A win for BW would send Woking down if Woking lose or Ebbsfleet down if Woking draw or win. Lets hope BW don't win then 😁
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Post by genghis on Apr 17, 2024 15:33:56 GMT
This worthless post is for Genghis. Those worthless Colchester beat an even more worthless Grimsby and now a not so much worthless Colchester look like staying up and sutton who are not worthless look like going down I appreciate the effort but calling Grimsby ‘worthless’ is a bit harsh.
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Post by paz on Apr 18, 2024 15:55:26 GMT
Ok, can we realistically stay up?
Obviously, it all rests on us getting 2 wins. Let's assume we can do so. (Taking into account MK Dons are all set for playoffs, with nothing to play for). though Crawley is going to be a really hard game.
Senario 1 Colchester lose to Nott County on Sat. (Not beyond possible) We go 1 point behind them.
Midweek, Colchester lose to Doncaster (Not beyond possible)
Then we go into the last game against MK Dons needing Colchester to fail to win against Crewe.
Senario 2 Colchester draw with Nott County on Stat (Quite possible) We go 2 points behind them
Midweek, Colchester lose to Doncaster (Quite possible)
Then we go into the last game against MK Dons needing Colchester to lose against Crewe
Such scenarios should be Enough for our players to keep on the button, we can say that much.
Much of our fate may depend on whether Crewe are already in the playoffs come the last game. It would help us if Wrexham beat Crewe before, with Walsall and Doncaster making ground, meaning that Crewe may need points come the last game.
Crawley is a big game, not just because we know we can't lose the points but its also the last chance we have to pile pressure on Colchester as they have two tricky ties next week.
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Post by sallycat on Apr 19, 2024 7:44:09 GMT
I've done all the permutations. But, concentrating on tomorrow only:
1) If we lose we're relegated.
2) If we draw we're relegated UNLESS Colchester lose by a significant margin, and even then it's highly unlikely. But not mathematically certain.
If we draw and Colchester do lose heavily, OR if we win and they draw, or if we win and they lose, then it'll be decided in Colchester's last two games.
In scenario 2, all eyes will be on Colchester United next Tuesday. If they win that, we're relegated regardless of Saturday's results (unless Grimsby lose heavily and we win).
3) If we win, we're still relegated if Colchester win and Grimsby don't lose heavily.
4) If we win and Colchester win but Grimsby get absolutely flattened, then it's between us and Grimsby on the final day (we can forget about Colchester at this point; they'd be mathematically safe).
5) Obviously best case scenario is that we win emphatically and the other two both lose heavily (or Grimsby do and Colchester draw) which will hand us two lifelines.
Anything else (or possibly even this) will result in us being relegated on GD if not points.
From the POV of the other two sides, 47 points is the total that will guarantee safety. So a win for either of them will keep them up. Grimsby only need a draw.
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