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Post by amberchoc on Apr 1, 2024 19:52:29 GMT
Here are the remaining fixtures for the bottom four. Despite our recent Herculean efforts, we'll still require some Houdini-like escapology skills.
Grimsby: Sat 6/4 - Newport (H) Tue 9/4 - Harrogate (A) Sat 13/4 - Crewe (A) Tue 16/4 - Colchester (A) Sat 20/4 - Swindon (H) Sat 27/4 - Crawley (A)
Sutton Utd: Sat 6/4 - Stockport (H) Sat 13/4 - Harrogate (A) Sat 20/4 - Crawley (H) Sat 27/4 - Milton Keynes (A)
Colchester: Sat 6/4 - Wrexham (H) Tue 9/4 - Stockport (H) Sat 13/4 - Crawley (A) Tue 16/4 - Grimsby (H) Sat 20/4 - Notts County (A) Tue 23/4 - Doncaster (H) Sat 27/4 - Crewe (H)
FGR: Sat 6/4 - Milton Keynes (H) Tue 9/4 - Mansfield (A) Sat 13/4 - Wrexham (A) Sat 20/4 - Morecambe (A) Sat 27/4 - Nottts County (H)
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 1, 2024 22:52:27 GMT
Only a rough estimation but I'd say we need 8 or 9 points out of our fixtures to stand any realistic chance.
Any offers above or below? If you can make a case for below, I'd be very happy.
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Post by genghis on Apr 1, 2024 23:19:21 GMT
If we can somehow pull off a win against Stockport then I’ll be feeling much more positive. The biggest hurdle is that Grimsby and that worthless Colchester play each other in one of their remaining fixtures. I think the latter will struggle the most with their fixtures so a Grimsby will probably be best for us there.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 2, 2024 8:46:58 GMT
Three of the bottom four have tough home games next Saturday, and Colchester have another the following Tuesday. Grimsby have a winnable looking home game v Newport, but their next three are all away (including Colchester).
I'm not expecting us to get much against Stockport. If we lose that, the pressure will be on to win at Harrogate a week later (and we hope they'll have beaten Grimsby the Tuesday before).
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Post by Andy K on Apr 2, 2024 9:26:57 GMT
FWP predicts that we will go down on 41 points (they predict we draw our 2 remaining home games and lose our two away games). They're predicting Grimsby on 44 and Colchester on 47.
Their full current prediction is:
Sat 6th Apr Colchester United 1 0 Wrexham Grimsby Town 1 1 Newport County Sutton United 1 1 Stockport County
Tues 9th Apr Colchester United 1 1 Stockport County Harrogate Town 1 0 Grimsby Town
Sat 13th Apr Crawley Town 1 0 Colchester United Crewe Alexandra 1 0 Grimsby Town Harrogate Town 2 0 Sutton United
Tues 16th Apr Colchester United 1 0 Grimsby Town
Sat 20th Apr Grimsby Town 2 1 Swindon Town Notts County 2 1 Colchester United Sutton United 1 1 Crawley Town
Tues 23rd Apr Colchester United 1 1 Doncaster Rovers
Sat 27th Apr Colchester United 1 1 Crewe Alexandra Crawley Town 1 0 Grimsby Town Milton Keynes Dons 3 0 Sutton United
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Post by Del on Apr 2, 2024 11:42:02 GMT
That's it then. Two more wins and we are safe ! Actually that may work out fairly accurate points wise but not computer score predictions. The form guide says we have a great chance against Stockport. I'd take a draw.
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Post by Stewart on Apr 2, 2024 12:27:51 GMT
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Post by baboonfish on Apr 3, 2024 14:25:09 GMT
That's it then. Two more wins and we are safe ! Actually that may work out fairly accurate points wise but not computer score predictions. The form guide says we have a great chance against Stockport. I'd take a draw. Don't see it. Colchester have got two really tough games, then a run against teams with nowt to play for. At this stage of the season, motivation makes a MASSIVE difference. We have 3 teams going for it at the top. Bad luck to play Stockport now when a win basically wraps up promotion. Could really use MKD not being able to claim 3rd by the time we play them. Crawley still have a lot to do for play off berth, so it's only Harrogate we can rely on to have less motivation than us. I'd bet a lot of money on Colchester being safe, probably with 1-2 still to play. FGR have got a really tough run in so can't see them pulling out. So we probably need to rely on Grimsby. HArd to see them not getting at least 5-6 points from their next 5 games. I think we'll need 3 wins, and even then we might get unlucky, although 3 wins COULD bring Swindon, or more likely Salford into the mix. By that stage GD might be a factor. We'd be VERY unlucky to go down with 48 points, but it's horribly possible if Grimsby get a few wins. 2 wins and 2 draws might do it, but any less that 8 points and I don't see it. Still, bravo for giving those of us like myself who had entirely written us off some hope. It's the hope that kills you though.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 3, 2024 14:46:39 GMT
Don't like saying it but I think the Stockport match is a must win. But I think the team will understand that and it's not impossible for us, the way things currently are.
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Post by Del on Apr 3, 2024 15:10:19 GMT
Don't like saying it but I think the Stockport match is a must win. But I think the team will understand that and it's not impossible for us, the way things currently are. We stopped having must win games. To stressful for everyone!
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Post by Stewart on Apr 3, 2024 16:07:04 GMT
Don't like saying it but I think the Stockport match is a must win. But I think the team will understand that and it's not impossible for us, the way things currently are. We stopped having must win games. To stressful for everyone! Correct, they are all cup finals now…. and we are doing rather well…..so far!
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garethl
Top Performer
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Member is Online
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Post by garethl on Apr 3, 2024 19:03:11 GMT
Trophy cabinet filling up rapidly. Never before have we won so much silverware.
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Post by Del on Apr 7, 2024 13:40:41 GMT
The way i see it now is that two wins would give us a fighting chance of staying up and three would make us safe. Three more Cup Finals !
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Post by Andy K on Apr 9, 2024 9:13:51 GMT
So FWP predicted this on Saturday
Sat 6th Apr Colchester United 1 0 Wrexham (1-2) Grimsby Town 1 1 Newport County (1-0) Sutton United 1 1 Stockport County (1-3)
They got all 3 wrong. but tonight they predict the following :
Colchester United 1 1 Stockport County
Harrogate Town 1 0 Grimsby Town Mansfield Town 1 0 Forest Green Rovers
If they are correct it will mean the following by 10pm tonight
Grimsby - 43 points (-18 GD)
Colchester - 39 points (-19 GD)
Sutton - 39 points (-25 GD)
FGR - 36 points (-30 GD)
Stockport have scored an average of 2 goals a game this season. Plus when you dig a bit deeper, FWP have given an away win as having a 51% chance of happening.
Obviously the best scenario all 3 of our rivals losing, but having a couple of Harrogate's key players being sent off would also be rather helpful!
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Post by amberchoc on Apr 9, 2024 9:43:54 GMT
I see Harrogate v Grimsby as a bit of a no-win situation for us. On the one hand, a home victory might help drag Grimsby back into the scrap, but it would also have the annoying knock-on effect of enhancing Harrogate’s play-off ambitions. That would not be ideal just prior to our match with them on Saturday. As long as Colchester and FGR get beaten, I would not be unhappy if Grimsby were to win. That would basically end any hope of Harrogate reaching the play-offs and give them much less motivation for Saturday.
Colchester v Stockport is the most important from our perspective and anything other than an away win will be severely damaging to our hopes. Colchester have proved very difficult to beat for a while now and it may not be straightforward for the league leaders. Potentially, Mansfield v FGR could go wrong for us. Mansfield’s form has tailed off at the wrong time and they now find themselves outside the automatic promotion spots. We really need them to get back on track.
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