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Post by Big Al on Apr 21, 2024 4:48:46 GMT
Bet 365 has us at 1/250 to be relegated - out from 1/100 before yesterdays game. Of course bookies can be wrong but in general they seem to do alright v the average punter….
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Post by sallycat on Apr 21, 2024 6:27:25 GMT
Players will be unhappy about the effort and decision making leading up to the Crawley equalizer. Players will be unhappy about the effort and decision making during the whole season leading up to our relegation, I would imagine. And please, I don't want to freak anyone out, but we are down. Really, we are. I do not think we are staying up. I was convinced otherwise by the Tranmere game and accepted our fate at that point. But to say we are down already is factually incorrect. It's likely to become true on Tuesday, and if it doesn't then the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that it'll happen on Saturday. It would be absolutely ridiculous if it didn't, given the probability of that outcome. But it hasn't happened yet. I get your POV. Acceptance of a thing helps us deal with it, whilst hope leads to disappointment. And if you're at that point it can get annoying if people try to convince you otherwise, and give you that false hope. But I get theirs, too. There IS a chance, and that tiny spark of hope can be quite exhilarating. It's like doing the lottery. You don't REALLY think you'll win, but to say not winning a 1 in a million lottery you have a valid ticket for is a foregone conclusion is simply wrong.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 21, 2024 11:05:43 GMT
Players will be unhappy about the effort and decision making during the whole season leading up to our relegation, I would imagine. And please, I don't want to freak anyone out, but we are down. Really, we are. I do not think we are staying up. I was convinced otherwise by the Tranmere game and accepted our fate at that point. But to say we are down already is factually incorrect. It's likely to become true on Tuesday, and if it doesn't then the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that it'll happen on Saturday. It would be absolutely ridiculous if it didn't, given the probability of that outcome. But it hasn't happened yet. I get your POV. Acceptance of a thing helps us deal with it, whilst hope leads to disappointment. And if you're at that point it can get annoying if people try to convince you otherwise, and give you that false hope. But I get theirs, too. There IS a chance, and that tiny spark of hope can be quite exhilarating. It's like doing the lottery. You don't REALLY think you'll win, but to say not winning a 1 in a million lottery you have a valid ticket for is a foregone conclusion is simply wrong. Yes, I do honestly understand. But we are at the point now (the chances are so very, very slim) that I regard the 'still hope' attitude as plain foolishness. A well meaning kind, but foolishness nonetheless. And it does become irksome. This is a very disappointing situation. It has been for quite a long time now, too. I once had a relative who, by the age of 75, was in very poor health. A few well meaning types would occasionally drop by and cheerfully opine 'You might live to 100!'. Of course, factually, they were correct. It was a possibility. And, of course, not one that happened. And you should have seen the look on my relatives face whenever that was said to her. A heavier scenario, I grant, but the principle is similar.
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Post by davef on Apr 21, 2024 11:11:20 GMT
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Post by genghis on Apr 21, 2024 11:19:45 GMT
Players will be unhappy about the effort and decision making during the whole season leading up to our relegation, I would imagine. And please, I don't want to freak anyone out, but we are down. Really, we are. I do not think we are staying up. I was convinced otherwise by the Tranmere game and accepted our fate at that point. But to say we are down already is factually incorrect. It's likely to become true on Tuesday, and if it doesn't then the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that it'll happen on Saturday. It would be absolutely ridiculous if it didn't, given the probability of that outcome. But it hasn't happened yet. I get your POV. Acceptance of a thing helps us deal with it, whilst hope leads to disappointment. And if you're at that point it can get annoying if people try to convince you otherwise, and give you that false hope. But I get theirs, too. There IS a chance, and that tiny spark of hope can be quite exhilarating. It's like doing the lottery. You don't REALLY think you'll win, but to say not winning a 1 in a million lottery you have a valid ticket for is a foregone conclusion is simply wrong. Actually, the most likely scenario is that it comes down to the final day but that we have a 5-6 GD to overcome. According to bookies we have around a 0.25% chance of survival now, or a 1 in 400 chance. It is silly odds, but statistically more likely than that season that Leicester won the premier league. I’ll Enjoy the next week more if there’s still even the tiniest sliver of hope.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 21, 2024 11:32:42 GMT
Well, time for me to stop reading this thread, I think.
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Post by suttonpodcast on Apr 21, 2024 12:30:44 GMT
Well, time for me to stop reading this thread, I think. I'm just seeing people point out we are not factually relegated, not feeling people are trying to make others have hope just clinging to it, can't see why you would let it annoy you - same as people who have been saying for months we are definitely down doesn't annoy me. Yes in all probability we are going to be relegated, but just because it isn't probable doesn't mean it isn't possible.
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Post by sallycat on Apr 21, 2024 13:16:31 GMT
I do not think we are staying up. I was convinced otherwise by the Tranmere game and accepted our fate at that point. But to say we are down already is factually incorrect. It's likely to become true on Tuesday, and if it doesn't then the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that it'll happen on Saturday. It would be absolutely ridiculous if it didn't, given the probability of that outcome. But it hasn't happened yet. I get your POV. Acceptance of a thing helps us deal with it, whilst hope leads to disappointment. And if you're at that point it can get annoying if people try to convince you otherwise, and give you that false hope. But I get theirs, too. There IS a chance, and that tiny spark of hope can be quite exhilarating. It's like doing the lottery. You don't REALLY think you'll win, but to say not winning a 1 in a million lottery you have a valid ticket for is a foregone conclusion is simply wrong. Yes, I do honestly understand. But we are at the point now (the chances are so very, very slim) that I regard the 'still hope' attitude as plain foolishness. A well meaning kind, but foolishness nonetheless. And it does become irksome. This is a very disappointing situation. It has been for quite a long time now, too. I once had a relative who, by the age of 75, was in very poor health. A few well meaning types would occasionally drop by and cheerfully opine 'You might live to 100!'. Of course, factually, they were correct. It was a possibility. And, of course, not one that happened. And you should have seen the look on my relatives face whenever that was said to her. A heavier scenario, I grant, but the principle is similar. That's exactly what I meant when I said it can be annoying when people try to give you false hope. I do see it. In fact, in the last week or two I have asked a couple of people to please stop TELLING me to carry on thinking we might stay up ("you have to have hope!"). I don't want to be convinced a miracle will happen and then have to sort out a head full of different horrible feelings when it doesn't happen. But that's not the same as allowing other people to feel that way when they're not doing it AT ME. It's just a part of human nature - just like our own way of seeing it. Foolishness, though? Walking out into the road without looking is foolish. Thinking Sutton might stay up (which is indeed possible, just) is hardly going to hurt anyone, is it? If that's foolishness, then you must regard it foolish to play the lottery? A "yes" answer is perfectly valid, of course, but then the next question would be do you go around telling people off for buying tickets and trying to ruin their fun?
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Post by sallycat on Apr 21, 2024 13:19:16 GMT
I do not think we are staying up. I was convinced otherwise by the Tranmere game and accepted our fate at that point. But to say we are down already is factually incorrect. It's likely to become true on Tuesday, and if it doesn't then the OVERWHELMING likelihood is that it'll happen on Saturday. It would be absolutely ridiculous if it didn't, given the probability of that outcome. But it hasn't happened yet. I get your POV. Acceptance of a thing helps us deal with it, whilst hope leads to disappointment. And if you're at that point it can get annoying if people try to convince you otherwise, and give you that false hope. But I get theirs, too. There IS a chance, and that tiny spark of hope can be quite exhilarating. It's like doing the lottery. You don't REALLY think you'll win, but to say not winning a 1 in a million lottery you have a valid ticket for is a foregone conclusion is simply wrong. Actually, the most likely scenario is that it comes down to the final day but that we have a 5-6 GD to overcome. According to bookies we have around a 0.25% chance of survival now, or a 1 in 400 chance. It is silly odds, but statistically more likely than that season that Leicester won the premier league. I’ll Enjoy the next week more if there’s still even the tiniest sliver of hope. We agree there, so there's no need for an "actually" I think Doncaster have a very good chance of winning on Tuesday. When I said "likely" I just meant in comparison to us not getting relegated. I probably didn't word it too well.
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Post by genghis on Apr 21, 2024 13:58:45 GMT
Regarding the lottery comparison - the odds of winning the regular lotto are around 1 in 45 million, if you buy a single ticket.
If you take the bookies odds that Sutton have a 1 in 400 chance of surviving relegation as generally accurate then that means that Sutton are 112,500 times more likely to survive relegation than you would be to win the lottery on Wednesday if you went out and bought a ticket.
Think that’s the most positive way to describe our current situation that I can think of.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 21, 2024 14:00:47 GMT
Yes, I do honestly understand. But we are at the point now (the chances are so very, very slim) that I regard the 'still hope' attitude as plain foolishness. A well meaning kind, but foolishness nonetheless. And it does become irksome. This is a very disappointing situation. It has been for quite a long time now, too. I once had a relative who, by the age of 75, was in very poor health. A few well meaning types would occasionally drop by and cheerfully opine 'You might live to 100!'. Of course, factually, they were correct. It was a possibility. And, of course, not one that happened. And you should have seen the look on my relatives face whenever that was said to her. A heavier scenario, I grant, but the principle is similar. That's exactly what I meant when I said it can be annoying when people try to give you false hope. I do see it. In fact, in the last week or two I have asked a couple of people to please stop TELLING me to carry on thinking we might stay up ("you have to have hope!"). I don't want to be convinced a miracle will happen and then have to sort out a head full of different horrible feelings when it doesn't happen. But that's not the same as allowing other people to feel that way when they're not doing it AT ME. It's just a part of human nature - just like our own way of seeing it. Foolishness, though? Walking out into the road without looking is foolish. Thinking Sutton might stay up (which is indeed possible, just) is hardly going to hurt anyone, is it? If that's foolishness, then you must regard it foolish to play the lottery? A "yes" answer is perfectly valid, of course, but then the next question would be do you go around telling people off for buying tickets and trying to ruin their fun? OK, I clearly haven't stopped reading this thread (but this really should be my last comment, I think). There seem to be two separate things, here. One is how far one is entitled to judge other people's views as foolish, if those views do no harm. I have no defence here except to say that, in practice, we all do this all of the time. Take a look at pretty much any thread on this forum and you'll find precisely that taking place (more or less politely). I think lots of things that people do, or think, are foolish (even if those things don't harm them or anyone else). I think that about myself, too. We're only human. The second point is quite how unlikely it would have to be for us to stay up before a segment of opinion conceeded that it was, in all reason, already game over. I've lost track of the GD turnover needed to make survival possible, even if all the main planks went our way. But I get a feeling that even if that GD were double what it is then people would still be calling that 'hope', because it's technically possible. And I don't see why I need to accomodate every wildly inflationary leap of hope that anyone is prepared to make without calling it foolish. Which, imo, it is.
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Post by sallycat on Apr 21, 2024 14:12:00 GMT
I won't quote, because you said you didn't want to read this thread any more, but that GD deficit is really not as huge as suggested although doubling it would make it impossible (within reasonable expectations of what a football match looks like) to overcome.
It's seven. Doncaster are absolutely blazing and desperate to get into the playoffs; they've recorded 3-0 and 4-0 wins in recent games against much better teams than Colchester. Say they win 3-0. The GD deficit is now 4.
If we went into the final day with that, we'd only have to win 2-0 at MK Dons and Colchester lose 2-0 to Crewe for us to erase that deficit - although we'd need to score one more to go above them on goals scored. So in that scenario a not-impossible 3-1 win would keep us up.
I would still be absolutely astonished if this DID happen, mind, but to suggest that GD is insurmountable doesn't ring true with me.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 21, 2024 14:35:49 GMT
Set you a middle ground case, then. Say the goal difference was nine. That's only (sic) 2 more. Doable? Still hope? Say it was 10. Same questions. 11? ....
When does it become insurmountable?
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Post by garethl on Apr 21, 2024 15:51:15 GMT
I think the biggest problem isn’t goal difference but the fact Colchester have Crewe who are currently close to the worst team (if not the worst) in this division at home on the final day whilst we go to MK. Now even that can be spun a touch more positively in that potentially Colchester may be out on their feet come Saturday, Crewe may need a result for the play offs and also MK can put their feet up.
It’ll be interesting how Colchester play Tuesday. Park it and just try for nil nil or at worst 1 or 2? Or try and be more positive and get a goal or 2 and make a point or 3 more likely. I would be a nervous Colchester fan going to that game if situation was reversed! Obviously they are nearly there and huge favourites to stay up but as a Colchester fan I’d hate that situation more! And probably the players could feel it if it starts going against them Tuesday - stick or twist if they go a goal or 2 down!
By the sounds of it Colchester were very lucky not to get thumped yesterday.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 21, 2024 18:20:56 GMT
Whatever happens, we still made a fight of it. When Matt was sacked, we were 6 points off safety, bottom of the league. If we do go down, we won't go down in bang last (which happened the last 2 times it happened) and to still be going into the last week with a slim chance is something many thought wasn't possible a few months ago. So credit to Steve - perhaps it took a little too long to get right, but we certainly gave it a good go.
If anyone here remembers 2007/2008, this feels nothing like it.
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