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Post by Amber Aleman on Nov 4, 2010 12:44:13 GMT
I've noticed something rather curious about the distribution of Sutton's league goals this season. In our six away games we've only ever scored no goals (Concord, K's, Lowestoft) or three goals (T&M, Hastings, Croydon A). In our seven home games we've only either scored once (Folkestone, Billericay, Cray) or twice (Horsham, Harrow, Margate, Tonbridge). Is this just a pattern thrown up at random? Or could there be an underlying explanation? I have some ideas about this, but thought I'd invite others to post their theories before I share mine. Or maybe I've just got too much time on my hands. (Incidentally, our results in the FA Cup and League Cup also fit with this pattern. But the two Trophy results don't!)
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DaveF
1st team Player
Posts: 1,726
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Post by DaveF on Nov 4, 2010 13:11:16 GMT
It's coincidence, pure and simple. Any other theory doesn't stand up to scrutiny, it would have been quite easy in any one of those games to score another goal, we certainly missed good chances. If you have a more profound theory then I suggest you cut back on the ale :-)
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Post by Amber Aleman on Nov 5, 2010 13:03:24 GMT
I'm suspicious of coincidences! The home goals distribution isn't actually that interesting, but the away goals (always either 0 or 3) is quite striking! It can - partly - be explained in terms of tendencies.
Here goes. When a team is playing away it tends to adopt a more defensive style of play, which in turn tends to allow fewer goalscoring opportunities. This tendency is accentuated when the home side has a relatively strong defence - such as Lowestoft and K's. So it's no great surprise that Sutton didn't score against these sides. The other side of the coin is that the home side tends to commit more men forward in attack, which can leave it vulnerable to counter-attacks. This risk is accentuated when the home side has a relatively weak defence - such as T&M and Croydon Ath. If the home side falls behind then it is likely to take greater risks to try to get a goal back - so increasing the chance of conceding a second and a third goal. So it's no great surprise that we managed to score three against those sides.
There's obviously more to it than this, and I'm not suggesting that all these games followed the pattern I described. And, for what it's worth, I am expecting the pattern of away goal distribution to be broken in this weekend's match against Maidstone.
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DaveF
1st team Player
Posts: 1,726
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Post by DaveF on Nov 5, 2010 15:05:54 GMT
Nothing wrong with your logic, but the theory works just as well for scoring 2 or 4 or even 5 away from home.
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dof
1st team skipper
Posts: 2,099
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Post by dof on Nov 6, 2010 17:27:45 GMT
......another 3 - 0 nil away win!!!
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Post by Amber Aleman on Nov 6, 2010 22:43:24 GMT
......another 3 - 0 nil away win!!! Well, would you believe it?! ;D
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Post by markn on Nov 7, 2010 21:19:04 GMT
Hi Amber Aleman,
Is there any similar pattern you have noticed with the lottery numbers?
I promise you a cut of any winnings.
Here's to two goals against K's on Tuesday to keep it going (with hopefully none against)
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