Sutton United v Barrow

[backhome2016]

Nov 28, 2021 19:59:50 GMT garethl said:

Luckily our manager isn’t worried about those meaningless stats!

But I bet he and the team look at them and use them.

[davef]

What's worse Billy is that some people (mainly those who think football was invented in 1992) seem to think that XG stats actually mean something.

[amberchoc]

Nov 29, 2021 10:58:55 GMT billy said:

And while i'm at it what does "Expected Goals" mean? This is a new one they have recently thought up.

At half-time in the Chelsea v Man.Utd match yesterday they came up with Man.Utd expected goals 0.02!! I suppose it’s meant to indicate that United didn’t have a sniff in that half, but I agree, it’s meaningless nonsense (well, unnecessary nonsense certainly).

[ian]

A book "The expected goals philosophy" by James Tippett shows that this aspect of analysing football has been used by professional gamblers for some years. Teams such as Brentford have used it to try to identify "hidden gems" in the transfer market and other teams use it as a gauge of team and player performance. Without explaining how the figures are arrived at the use of "expected goals" on MOTD for example is a nonsense in my opinion.

[shaneaib]

Thanks for explaining the expected goals philosophy" expected goals philosophy" useful to know. The book Moneyball later made into a film was a significant point when it came to analysing sports data with the subsequent stats they produced. Teams, players and manages look at game stats to a lesser or greater extent. Stats don't tell you the whole story of a game but they have their place. That games on TV supply stats (sometimes out of context) is partly to satisfy a part of the audience who bet on games. Me personally, watching a game is enough excitement for me so pass on the endless bettting opportunities that football provides.

Nov 29, 2021 12:14:20 GMT ian said:

A book "The expected goals philosophy" by James Tippett shows that this aspect of analysing football has been used by professional gamblers for some years. Teams such as Brentford have used it to try to identify "hidden gems" in the transfer market and other teams use it as a gauge of team and player performance. Without explaining how the figures are arrived at the use of "expected goals" on MOTD for example is a nonsense in my opinion.

[bucks]

All this expected goals nonsense kind of reminds me of the system that the Oakland Athletics used in the MLB years ago (and made into the movie Moneyball) where they basically tried to pick up hidden gems on the cheap based on certain stats like getting on base percentage rather than the usual hitting home runs and so on.

It probably has some use, but in the whole it is probably a complete load of crap.

[boomboom]

The following detailed, but well-balanced, article provides a description of the concept of Expected Goals, its genesis and how the figures are derived:

www.sportperformanceanalysis.com/article/what-are-expected-goals-xg#:~:text=Expected%20Goals%2C%20or%20xG%2C%20are%20the%20number%20of,those%20chances%21%22%20%22He%20should%20have%20had%20a%20hat-trick%21%E2%80%9D

Clearly, it has drawbacks (as well as strengths) and tells only part of the story. However, completely dismissing it out of hand reminds of those dinosaurs who rubbished innovations such as artificial pitches, substitutes, floodlights, numbers on players shirts...and....well the list is probably endless.

Whether it has a place on highlights programmes such as MotD is another matter and there's always the mute button.

[Del]

Neither team needs to play the game then. The result can be determined by the expected goals formula!

[trev]

Call me old-fashioned, but I prefer actual goals. 

[boomboom]

Nov 29, 2021 19:49:33 GMT billy said:

Nov 29, 2021 19:24:02 GMT boomboom said:

The following detailed, but well-balanced, article provides a description of the concept of Expected Goals, its genesis and how the figures are derived:

www.sportperformanceanalysis.com/article/what-are-expected-goals-xg#:~:text=Expected%20Goals%2C%20or%20xG%2C%20are%20the%20number%20of,those%20chances%21%22%20%22He%20should%20have%20had%20a%20hat-trick%21%E2%80%9D

Clearly, it has drawbacks (as well as strengths) and tells only part of the story. However, completely dismissing it out of hand reminds of those dinosaurs who rubbished innovations such as artificial pitches, substitutes, floodlights, numbers on players shirts...and....well the list is probably endless.

Whether it has a place on highlights programmes such as MotD is another matter and there's always the mute button.

Can you tell us some more from your endless list please  because i can't remember anyone,anywhere "rubbishing" many of the things you mention.

As a dinosaur myself i would only take issue with the amount of substitutes and how late in the game they come on.For me two was enough and i wouldn't allow them on after say 80 minutes.

Happy to oblige:

1) Artificial pitches.   The EFL continues to refuse to sanction them, not to mention comments from fans & managers of teams we've played at GGL over recent seasons. 

2)  Floodlights.  www.football-stadiums.co.uk/articles/history-of-floodlights-in-football/#:~:text=On%20the%2016th%20of%20June%201952%20floodlights%20were,first%20time%20on%20the%2011th%20of%20August%201952.

"In the top-tier of Association Football, as well as in many of the lower tiers of the Football League, floodlights are a requirement at stadiums hoping to host professional football. The installation of permanent floodlights has therefore become common practice, with only a few clubs still using temporary ones are a useful alternative.

It took a while for that to be the case, however. During the 1930s Herbert Chapman at Arsenal decided to install permanent lights at Highbury. The Football League, in its infinite wisdom, refused to sanction their use, though, so only friendly and unofficial games were played using the newly installed lights......

....It took until the 1950s for the FA to change its mind. Even then it wasn’t because the powers that be realised how useful the technology would be, but rather they were being used so commonly in friendly games that they realised they had no choice but to relent."

3) Substitutes.  www.footballvn.org/articles/substitutions-in-football/

"The Football Association in England, which has never been an organisation that likes to rush decisions, refused to allow substitutes until the 1965-1966 season."

4) Shirt numbers.   en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squad_number_(association_football)#:~:text=The%20first%20record%20of%20numbered%20jerseys%20in%20football,be%20ruled%20as%20mandatory%20in%20New%20South%20Wales.

"The first record of numbered jerseys in football date back to 1911, with Australian teams Sydney Leichardt and HMS Powerful being the first to use squad numbers on their backs.  One year later, numbering in football would be ruled as mandatory in New South Wales.  Made mandatory in NSW in 1911."

and it took 17 years (OK 13 excluding WW1) for it to catch on in the Football League, let alone made mandatory:

"The next recorded use in association football in Europe was on 25 August 1928 when The Wednesday played Arsenal[8] and Chelsea hosted Swansea Town at Stamford Bridge."

[brisfitboy]

Nov 30, 2021 10:52:40 GMT trev said:

Call me old-fashioned, but I prefer actual goals. 

But surely that’s what Subbuteo is for, unless of course you want to use XG to measure the tensile strength of ones forefinger 🤦‍♂️🙇‍♂️