28 days later....

[Andy K]

...from the date of this post, we'd have completed our first EFL league season at Harrogate.

We've got 6 games to go, and can finish on a maximum of 82 points. Even if we managed to end with 6 wins on the bounce, it's unrealistic to even suggest we will win the title, and a number of clubs will need to see a dip in form for automatic promotion, so the realistic target is a play off spot, and obviously as high up as possible.

Although we are currently in 10th, our PPG position is 8, with 1.60 PPG. Salford and Tranmere (9th and 10th) are both on 1.59, Newport in 7th are on 1.61 and Northampton and Bristol Rovers both being on 1.63 gives an indication on how close the margins are and how unlikely the final 4 in playoffs will be decided before the end of play on May 7th.

In terms of teams in contention, it would be pretty safe to say that 6 teams out of 10 will make promotion or play offs, with 4 missing the cut. Crawley in 12th are probably a little too far away to be in contention.

The remaining games for each club are
Exeter - Colchester (H), Tranmere (A), Rochdale (H), Barrow (H), Northampton (A), Port Vale (H)
Port Vale - Hartlepool (A), Bristol Rovers (H), Walsall (A), Newport (H), Exeter (A)
Mansfield - Sutton (H), Carlisle (A), Crawley (H), Stevenage (H), Salford (A), FGR (H)
Northampton - Oldham (A), Harrogate (H),  Leyton O (A), Exeter (H), Barrow (A)
Bristol Rovers - Salford (H), Port Vale (A), FGR (H), Rochdale (A), Scunthorpe (H)
Newport - Crawley (H), Sutton (A), Colchester (H), Port Vale (A), Rochdale (H)
Salford City - Bristol Rovers (A), Barrow (H), Oldham (A), Mansfield (H), Stevenage (A)
Tranmere - Bradford (A), Exeter (H), Stevenage (A), Oldham (H), Leyton Orient (A)
Sutton - Mansfield (A), Newport (H), Barrow (A), Crawley (H), Bradford (H), Harrogate (A)
Swindon - Harrogate (A), Leyton Orient (H), Hartlepool (A), FGR (H), Barrow (H), Walsall (A)

I've put in bold the other sides chasing a play off/promotion spot, but also added in red the 3 teams who are most likely to join Scunthorpe when their relegation is more than likely confirmed next weekend. As you can see Barrow have the run in from hell. 5 of their 6 games listed are against sides aiming for an automatic promotion/play off spots. Their other game? Home to FGR on Friday. Oldham don't have it much better, but for ones last six games, you really don't want to be playing the current 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 10th and 11th placed sides all with someone big to play for when you are trying to preserve your league status. 

I'd say looking at the fixtures and taking the presumption that FGR will more likely cruise to the end of the season rather than be relentless, I would say that Mansfield, Tranmere, Northampton and Swindon have the overall easiest run ins. Swindon in particular will play many sides with only pride to play for. I would put us in a similar position to Bristol Rovers - the easter weekend will define how we end the season more than the last 4 or so games. I'd say that Port Vale probably have the toughest of all the fixtures. A couple of tricky away fixtures and play off competitors in the other games. If things go according to form in these fixtures, I can see Exeter taking a deserved 2nd place, with PV just pipping Mansfield to the 3rd spot. 

Where will we be? I think it's very possible we could sneak into 7th, even without hitting the magic 75 points. I think Tranmere will fade away, as will Swindon, and Bristol Rovers and Newport just miss out due to not taking points off other rivals. So that will leave Mansfield, Northampton, Salford and Us in the play offs. Let's see how this pans out.

At the bottom end, I can only see one thing happening which I've already alluded to. Barrow return to the National League after 2 seasons. I just think their run in is just far too tough for them. 

[VCLXI]

When I first saw this thread title I thought it was all about a zombie film. But the number 28 is in the title, imagine if little Sutton reach the play final on the 28th May!

[Amber Aleman]

A challenging but achievable target for us is 13 points from the last six games (i.e. four wins, one draw, one defeat). That could well deliver fifth place. A slightly less ambitious total of 11 points could give us sixth. It may come down to goal difference.

[Andy K]

FWP predict us to win 4 games (all of our remaining home games) 1 draw (at Barrow) and 2 defeats (at Mansfield and Harrogate). That will leave us on 74 point. They also predict that will be enough for 7th place, edging out Bristol Rovers on goal difference.

[Amber Aleman]

It's often unwise to make predictions, but if we need something from that final game at Harrogate then I'd fancy us to get at least a point. They've failed to win any of their last six home games; Hartlepool, Orient and Colchester have all won there since the beginning of March.

[sufc1898]

It’s an old cliché but surely one game at a time? Matts been saying that for almost all the season. Seems to be working pretty well so far.