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Post by toothman on Jan 11, 2023 11:38:05 GMT
Whilst doing some research for a posting on the NTT20 Forum regarding how far current EFL clubs have come in the past 10 years - prompted by Mike saying on the podcast that our average home attendances have risen in 10 years from just over 500 to just over 3000, I was alarmed to see that in 2012/2013 Barnet were relegated on 51 points on goal difference. So perhaps we should revise our seasonal target to 52 points?
I decided to work out who had had the most meteoric rise in football and conversely the most meteoric. Incidentally , Sutton do not have the most meteoric raise up the pyramid of the current EFL and PL 92 as i initially suspected . That honour goes to Salford City ( obvious if i'd thought about it), if you compare their position in 2013 ( Northern Premier Division One North) to now, a rise of around 99 places. I can't precisely quantify it as i can with every other club, as I can't find historic New Year tables for that low down the pyramid, so I have based it on their final table position that season of 16th. Next best is Luton 72 places up from 8th in NL to 7th in the Championship; 3rd best Lincoln City gaining 51 places from 18th in NL ; 4th are the mighty Us 49 places better from 13th in NLS and 5th best Plymouth Argyle who were 21st in LG2 on 2nd Jan 2013 and were correspondingly top of LG1.
In terms of decline aside from Bury who are now defunct, the worst catastrophic decline from New Year 2013 is Yeovil Town down 57 places from 9th in LG1 , then Oldham Athletic 50 places down from 19th in LG1 to 21st in NL; then Scunthorpe 49 places from 23rd in LG1 to bottom of NL ; 4th worst is Tranmere Rovers 38 places down from top of LG1 to 15th in LG2 and 5th equal worst Crawley Town and Notts County 36 places down from their respective 8th and 13th places in LG1.
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Post by sufc1898 on Jan 11, 2023 12:06:42 GMT
I’m pretty confident that we will not need 50 points this season. I would suggest 45 will be more than enough. That said, I’m sure Matt is looking up and and down at that moment.
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,138
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Post by oohaah on Jan 11, 2023 12:48:10 GMT
I'm more than happy to continue with Matt's 50 point 'initial' target (at least until we reach the PL) - Someone should create a chant about it, dontcha think?
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Post by Andy K on Jan 11, 2023 13:40:49 GMT
Whilst doing some research for a posting on the NTT20 Forum regarding how far current EFL clubs have come in the past 10 years - prompted by Mike saying on the podcast that our average home attendances have risen in 10 years from just over 500 to just over 3000, I was alarmed to see that in 2012/2013 Barnet were relegated on 51 points on goal difference. So perhaps we should revise our seasonal target to 52 points? I decided to work out who had had the most meteoric rise in football and conversely the most meteoric. Incidentally , Sutton do not have the most meteoric raise up the pyramid of the current EFL and PL 92 as i initially suspected . That honour goes to Salford City ( obvious if i'd thought about it), if you compare their position in 2013 ( Northern Premier Division One North) to now, a rise of around 99 places. I can't precisely quantify it as i can with every other club, as I can't find historic New Year tables for that low down the pyramid, so I have based it on their final table position that season of 16th. Next best is Luton 72 places up from 8th in NL to 7th in the Championship; 3rd best Lincoln City gaining 51 places from 18th in NL ; 4th are the mighty Us 49 places better from 13th in NLS and 5th best Plymouth Argyle who were 21st in LG2 on 2nd Jan 2013 and were correspondingly top of LG1. In terms of decline aside from Bury who are now defunct, the worst catastrophic decline from New Year 2013 is Yeovil Town down 57 places from 9th in LG1 , then Oldham Athletic 50 places down from 19th in LG1 to 21st in NL; then Scunthorpe 49 places from 23rd in LG1 to bottom of NL ; 4th worst is Tranmere Rovers 38 places down from top of LG1 to 15th in LG2 and 5th equal worst Crawley Town and Notts County 36 places down from their respective 8th and 13th places in LG1. At around the same time that season (2012/13), the bottom 2 clubs had 22 points and Barnet were on 23. This season, the bottom two have 14 and 19 points respectively. I'd still say based on that alone, 50 points will still be enough. But I also think that's something we don't need to worry about.
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Post by simon on Jan 11, 2023 14:31:52 GMT
On average the team finishing 22nd over the last 10 years has had 46 points.
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Post by toothman on Jan 11, 2023 15:03:31 GMT
On average the team finishing 22nd over the last 10 years has had 46 points. 76 points "on average" get you into a play off spot - so we know how that panned out last season. Averages are averages so 46 points doesn't always mean you are safe. One of the prediction sites which looks at form and the strength of the sides yet to play has predicted us to finish on 62 points - last season that would have been 12th. Ali Maxwell from NTT20 podcast/ forum has taken a punt and predicted we will make the playoffs based on the premise that we have an established squad that has started to play well and with the majority of our injuries back playing, where as other clubs seem to be having their bad runs of injuries just starting
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Post by davep on Jan 11, 2023 16:11:46 GMT
"I decided to work out who had had the most meteoric rise in football"
If you go back to the start of the century, the most meteoric rise followed by the most meteoric fall was Rushden and Diamomds. They rocketed up the leagues bankrolled by Max Griggs, the owner of Dr Martens boots - and when he lost interest they went rocketing straight back down to oblivion. Always thought it would have made a good film.
Barnet are the only club to be promoted to- and relegated from - the Football League three times.
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Post by toothman on Jan 11, 2023 16:20:18 GMT
"I decided to work out who had had the most meteoric rise in football" If you go back to the start of the century, the most meteoric rise followed by the most meteoric fall was Rushden and Diamomds. They rocketed up the leagues bankrolled by Max Griggs, the owner of Dr Martens boots - and when he lost interest they went rocketing straight back down to oblivion. Always thought it would have made a good film. Barnet are the only club to be promoted to- and relegated from - the Football League three times. I was only reflecting on the past 10 years - as that had a certain symmetry- and for us a rather good 10 as it's been a virtual one way upward trajectory
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Post by cheshire on Jan 11, 2023 17:15:29 GMT
Its just over eleven and a half years since we said farewell to the Isthmian League so measured over that period our upward trajectory would probably rival Salford's rise up the leagues. (I was going to type "give them a run for ther money" but then decided not to as the way they are bank rolled, we would need a combination of Usain Bolt and Jeff Bezos!)
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Post by toothman on Jan 11, 2023 18:14:48 GMT
Its just over eleven and a half years since we said farewell to the Isthmian League so measured over that period our upward trajectory would probably rival Salford's rise up the leagues. (I was going to type "give them a run for ther money" but then decided not to as the way they are bank rolled, we would need a combination of Usain Bolt and Jeff Bezos!) I think NPL Div 1 N is one tier below the Isthmian Premiership so Salford still win.
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Post by cheshire on Jan 11, 2023 18:18:33 GMT
Its just over eleven and a half years since we said farewell to the Isthmian League so measured over that period our upward trajectory would probably rival Salford's rise up the leagues. (I was going to type "give them a run for ther money" but then decided not to as the way they are bank rolled, we would need a combination of Usain Bolt and Jeff Bezos!) I think NPL Div 1 N is one tier below the Isthmian Premiership so Salford still win. Given that we grafted and earned our promotions and they simply bank rolled theirs, I say we win...!
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