Just how important Harrow is!

[os]

The predicted final table based on home + away avg performances rather than just aggregate points normally shown is below:

1 Dover Athletic 109
2 Staines Town 94
3 Tonbridge Angels 74
4 Carshalton Athletic 69
5 Sutton United 66
6 Dartford 64
7 AFC Hornchurch 61
8 Horsham 60


The key thing is that 66-68pts will secure a playoff spot unless Dartford / AFCH or Horsham start a run of something like 8 or 9 wins on the spin, always possible but unlikely. Canvey are too far off the pace to realistically have any real chance and AFCH will have to win both their games in hand and face the toughest run in of any side plus have a shed load of suspensions.

This means we need a max of 7 wins to grab a playoff spot with 13 games to go, if we win tomorrow we will only need 6 from 12. If T&M can get any sort of result at Home to Dartford it will leave them needing 8 wins from 12 games to take the spot with us just winning 6.

A defeat for us tomorrow puts us and Darts back on an even playing field, its taken me a few days to work this out but tomorrow is a key game for us and could be a pivotal moment in the season.

[Andy K]

No disrespect intended for any of the parties involved, but if we have not got the mentality of winning tomorrow against a team with the 2nd worse defence in the league lying just above the relegation zone, then of course we don't deserve to be in the play offs!

But realisitcally odd things happen - see Ramsgate in December...we need to make sure we get 7 wins at very minimum to be certain of a place there!

[localboy86]

Big game for us tomorrow against Harrow - just hope we're up for it - by the sounds of things in the preview we have a fair few players out injured/suspended so would happily take a scrappy one-nil to take us onto 50 points for the season with 12 games to go. Just seen what March looks like - ONE home game out of seven is gonna be tricky. Looks like the home games against Dover and Carshalton are gonna be absolutely huge.

Here's hoping for tomorrow! C'mon U's

[Amber Aleman]

On paper, Harrow at home is the easiest of our remaining fixtures. And our following game, Heybridge away, is the second easiest. But of course football matches aren't played on paper. ;D

I wouldn't put too much faith in the average performance indicator. Dartford started the season poorly but have come good over the last couple of months. So their average performance over the season so far probably understates their potential over the next two months. I think we might need more than 66 points to finish above them. And who knows how much of a boost the signing of Charlie Ide will give to the Bobbins' fortunes?

[os]

Bobbins are not really relevent to us and 68pts means that Dartford have to win 8 of their remaining 13 games so I cannot see us needing more. Of course the game against Dartford could end up being the most important match of the season and they are the big danger, hence why today is so important!

[bh]

I see from the Harrow web site that ex U Tobi Jinadu is a Borough regular.

[garethl]

I think putting the play off run in down to either us or Dartford joing Staines, Tonbridge and Carshalton is way too simplistic. There is loads of football to be played and personally I can see anyone from Wealdstone up having the opportunity to still put something together to get in there (there is usually one flyer at this stage of the season). I also think with Carshalton 3 points off us they certainly are most relevant to us in terms of a play off place - especially with a game to come at home against them. There is no way that either Carshalton or Tonbridge are that good that anything is guaranteed! It only takes an injury crisis or just a loss of form. I do accept that the amount of wins os is talking about would make it seriously unlucky for us not to be one of those teams - let's hope we are good enough to get on a consistent run. I guess we just need to concentrate on winning our games and getting to PD's target.