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Post by Andy K on Jan 27, 2008 22:09:42 GMT
Can we resurrect Penalty Watch. This time 'How many penalties have we conceeded this season'
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Gareth
1st team Player
Goon
Posts: 1,646
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Post by Gareth on Jan 27, 2008 22:33:25 GMT
When was the last time we didn't concede a penalty against Newport?!!!
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Post by os on Feb 3, 2008 1:46:58 GMT
Cos I am feeling a bit depressed I thought I would do the stats, Maidenhead have proved me wrong with their 3-0 win over St Albans and has to now see them safe for another season in the Connie sth. Dorchester with 1 win in 8 make us look good and look set for the Southern league. St Albans are going to struggle to pick up any additional points in Feb with some tough games to come. Bognor's amazing result against Lewes coupled with their form and the possible requirement of just another 11pts for safety sees them out of immediate danger. Welling have not won a single match in 2008 and are nose diving out of the division, that means only 2 of the current bottom 3 will go down, there would appear 1 more seat on the lifeboat? And here is the good news as long as Welling lose Tuesday that is. We face Thurrock next Saturday and Havant on the following Tuesday, Thurrock are as bad as us away from home and have only won 1 of their last 8 away games scoring just 9 goals, and Havant are the worst away side in the division winning none of their last 8 away games conceding 20 and just scoring 8 goals. Even accepting our own dire position and form we have a bloody good chance of winning both matches on paper, not just in my head. I feel a bit better now because this maybe our final opportunity but its the best hope of actually putting a couple of back to back results together. In ten days time I think we will know our fate. We just got to go for it in both and supporters have got to get behind the side and give it one last shot, it really is a good one!
Remaining 15 Games: W6 D4 L5 22pts
MATCHES UNTILL END OF FEB:
Tuesday, 05 February 2008 Welling v Newport County, 19:45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 09 February 2008 St Albans v Newport County, 15:00 Sutton Utd v Thurrock, 15:00 Weston-S-Mare v Welling, 15:00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday 12th Feb Sutton V Havant ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 16 February 2008 Bath City v Welling, 15:00 Eastbourne Borough v St Albans, 15:00 H Sutton Utd v Eastleigh, 15:00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 23 February 2008 Bognor Regis Town v Maidenhead Utd, 15:00 Dorchester v Sutton Utd, 15:00 Eastleigh v Welling, 15:00 H St Albans v Bath City, 15:00 A
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markf
Top Performer
Posts: 3,205
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Post by markf on Feb 3, 2008 11:32:01 GMT
And I got the MU result correct. Very good away from home this season.
Welling have appointed an experienced new manager & although his first match was a disaster, they may yet still turn the corner. it will depend on how many players he can bring in though.
BRT result yesterday will be a massive confidence boost & while they are still part of the bottom 5 I reckon, as OS states, it maybe down to just 4 clubs now. As I have stated previuosly, I cannot see us getting out of it.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Feb 3, 2008 22:35:51 GMT
With almost two-thirds of the season gone we've got only 15 points, are propping up the table, have the worst defensive record and are joint lowest scorers. In almost any other season, we'd be dead and buried.
Remarkably, there are three clubs not too far above us in the table whose recent form is even worse than ours. That gives us a chance. But having that chance and taking it are two different things.
We've lost our last four league games - but they were all against sides near the top of the table. Our next five (four of them at home) look less formidable. I think that our results in those five games will be crucial to our survival hopes.
Thurrock at home next Saturday feels winnable. But Thurrock are currently second in the BSS form table, having won five of their last six. There are no easy fixtures at this level.
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amberay
Youth Team Player
Posts: 122
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Post by amberay on Feb 5, 2008 20:14:04 GMT
Well I'll stick with o.s.'s calculations and guesstimates. Thats why he started this thread. A knowledgable optimist giving us something to cling to on a weekly basis. Its where I come when my doubts begin to gnaw. Please take the doom and gloom to any other thread where I'm sure it will find like minded company. When o.s. says 'thats it', then that really will be it. Come on Sutton.
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rob
Youth Team Player
Posts: 238
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Post by rob on Feb 6, 2008 17:42:50 GMT
Form Guide,Thurrocks last 6 games won5 lost 1,and Havant only scored twice at Anfield.
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Post by os on Feb 6, 2008 19:35:40 GMT
Form Guide,Thurrocks last 6 games won5 lost 1,and Havant only scored twice at Anfield. Well we are not playing Thurrock in Sunny Lakeside, take a look at what happens when they leave the shopping centre? As for Havant the form guide says just one away win all season, we have 2? amberay: Thanks optimistic by name and by nature
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rob
Youth Team Player
Posts: 238
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Post by rob on Feb 6, 2008 19:41:38 GMT
There away form is pretty shocking away form lakeside as you say,and the predicted end of season league table only shows the 4th bottom team on 34 points,so there can be optimism
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Post by os on Feb 9, 2008 23:09:16 GMT
We started the day clinging on by our finger nails and thats how we ended it, but at least we did not fall in!
2008 form:
Pos Pld 7 W 3 L 4 F 7 A 15 GD -8 Pts 9 (projected 36pts)
@11th/12th in form the table since 1st Jan if season started then we would not be relegated?
We need
Remaining 14 Games: W6 D2 L6 20pts = (38pts)
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Post by os on Feb 13, 2008 19:58:10 GMT
The question is can we still avoid relegation purely looking at the stats?
We are 6pts away from safety with only Welling and Bognor realistically in our sights just!
Our form for previous 8 matches played puts us 15th in the table, so we are far from being the worst side in the division. However we are 3pts behind where we need to be if we are to have any chance of survival, we went in to these 3 matches at home needing 6pts to keep our hopes alive, and nothing has changed. The continued failure of teams around us is keeping our life support system going but it is only a matter of time before Welling / Bognor gain a victory to which we must respond in kind.
What MarkF says on the other thread about 13pts is the same as our form suggests and that is one win away from the level we need, at this stage it looks like we will be relegated on @31/32pts. We now need to pull a rabbit out of the hat by winning a game that we really shouldn't and rely on continued failure from Bognor / Welling as if we all win we have to do it all again. The worst scenario is we lose on Saturday and Bognor beat Braintree which they could and Welling pull their own rabbit out against Bath. The best case is we beat Eastleigh and the other 2 lose then again we are in with a shout.
SIMPLE: WE HAVE TO GET TO THE BOGNOR GAME WITH THE GAP NO BIGGER THAN IT IS NOW 3PTS MORE AND WE ARE STUFFED!
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Post by Amber Aleman on Feb 13, 2008 22:53:44 GMT
IMO we really have to win the next three - and then cross our fingers.
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Post by os on Feb 16, 2008 23:24:36 GMT
The table below is predicted final table based on last 8 game performances, failure to take the required 6 pts from our 3 homes games has left us with a mountain to climb. Bognor's form is slightly better than ours and with a 9pts advantage over us tonight are now very unlikely to be relegated even if we do the double over them. Our form is better then any of the other bottom 6 sides with a points avg of 0.875 pts per game but Maidenhead and Weston will not lose enough ground between now and the end of the season for us to catch them. This leaves us with just Welling as realistically catchable, but that requires a slight improvement in form from us and Welling's continued nose dive. The problem here is that our games get tougher in March and Welling have 2 games in hand and play twice in the next 10 days. Make no mistake that defeat against Dorchester followed by 3pts for Welling in either of those 2 games means we will be relegated. We are running out of time and options and are reliant now on our performances plus the failure of Welling's. 16 Bognor Regis Town 42 41 17 Maidenhead Utd 42 40 18 Weston-S-Mare 42 38 19 Welling 42 31 ######################################## 20 Sutton Utd 42 30 21 St Albans 42 28 22 Dorchester 42 27 Have said all that we won't come bottom and there is still the chance of a reprieve
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Post by Amber Aleman on Feb 17, 2008 20:10:03 GMT
I agree with OS that we really needed to have taken more from the last three games.
Our defensive record has improved since Bath and Fisher each put four past us: in the last five matches we've only conceded five, and two of those were penalties. But in those five games we've only scored twice, one of those a pen. Unless we start to create and take more chances then we've no chance of staying up.
Bcak in December, I reckoned that we needed around 7 points from every four matches to stay up. As things have turned out, because of the number of other struggling sides it looks as if 5-6 points per four games would be enough. But we've not even been meeting that target. Since mid-December we've managed exactly a point a match, 12 from twelve (or 4 from every four). Our points total has gone up from 7 to 19.
We've now got twelve league games left. If we carry on picking up points at the same rate then we'll end up with 31. That would mean almost certain relegation.
We all recognise that the next two games are massive - but we also have to get some wins from the run of tough fixtures that follows.
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Post by os on Feb 23, 2008 22:47:48 GMT
Not being there today lets me look purely at the Stats with emotion (nearly) removed and tbh the stats don't lie and probably just reinforce what we all know but here it is in B/W: The Raw stats for previous 4 and 16 games for bottom 4 sides with predicted final points tally, as you can see it would be a very close run thing if we were to continue picking up 5pts from every 4 games. LAST 4 GAMES 14 Sutton United 4 1 2 1 2 3 -1 5 = 1.25 PREDICTED = 33.75 pts (GD -38) ============================================= WELLING 3pts = 0.75 PREDICTED = 33.75 pts (GD -39) ST ALBANS 2pts 0.25 PREDICTED = 22.75 pts DORCHESTER = 1pts = 0.5 = 26 pts LAST 16 GAMES WELLING 10pts = 0.625 PREDICTED = 32.15 pts ============================================== 17 Sutton United 16 3 6 7 15 24 -9 15 = 0.97 PREDICTED = 30.31 pts ST ALBANS 10pts 0.625 PREDICTED = 26.875 pts DORCHESTER = 7pts = 0.4375 = 25.25 But as the bloke on the advert says its not as easy as that because to continue the trend we have to do it against better sides. That means we have to score more goals as its likely we will concede against the likes of Eastbourne and Lewes. That means we roughly need to do this in our next 4 games: Bognor WIN Braintree DRAW Eastbourne DRAW Lewes LOSE Welling return can only pick up 3pts from their next 6 games, if that happens we are on course for a very tight run thing with them. In a way its good they have games in hand because sides down the bottom tend to lose most which hurts their goal difference so we need Welling to play. OK that's the stats now the reality check, we have scored just 2 league goals since Jan 19th neither of which came from open play, one was a penalty the other a Keeper error. Steffan Ball may turn out to be a first rate striker and this no reflection on him what so ever but he is not experienced at this level and that has showed a couple of times when composure was needed. Ultimately the lack of a potent strike force means that relegation is very much odds on not because of what I say but thats what the stats say, unless we get that striker this week. Optimistic by name and nature I will say our back 4 if kept together next season could see us bounce straight back up, they are turning out to be an excellent unit. ITS NOT OVER YET BUT WE GOT OUR HEAD IN A NOOSE AND THEIRS A BLOKE WITH A BLACK MASK ON STANDING BY A LEVER
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