|
Post by os on Dec 29, 2007 23:27:27 GMT
STAT'S A NEW SEASON! Well 21 games gone 21 to go, 9pts to show for the 2007 part of the 2007/08 season which you don't need to be a rocket scientist to workout is about as bad as it can possibly be So with a New Year comes what is effectively a new season for us containing 21 matches, our task is to pickup @35pts from those games given us a grand total of 44pts which should save us? This means that we are aiming at: 6 Bishop's Stortford 21 10 5 6 39 31 +8 35 for the second half of the season, nothing less will do other that us waking up on Jan 1st as a playoff side, Stortford's record shows us more or less exactly what we have to achieve in every stat. We have to double our scoring and halve our goals against, the second part of which I think is already happening but we got to find a goal source big time. Question is can it be done? I am sure Mark will tell us if this has ever been done before from this starting position. Whether we survive or not will depend heavily on our performances against the teams immediately around us. There are 7 games St Albans / Thurrock / Dorc / Bognor x 2 / Welling / Camb which can be considered as 6 pointers do or die matches, because defeats here mean we are down without a question, but win them and we have every chance of staying up. We have to be sitting here in a weeks time with a min of 4pts for H+R and St Albans, how we get them I don't care but if we don't any realistic chance of staying up may well of gone with it. Each game now just gets bigger and bigger for us, what we need is still just about achievable but in 2 or 3 weeks time that window closes and there will be no way out.
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 1, 2008 19:49:11 GMT
I am going to keep this thread alive After todays win we now need 9 wins 5 draws and can afford 6 defeats, with 7 games against sides around us still to come the task is not as hopeless as many feel, this is do-able! A win at St Albans on Saturday takes us off the bottom and if Dorchester get nowt we are bang next door to that escape hatch with Bognor to play twice 2008: Pld1 W1 L0 F2 A1 Pts3 Optimistic Sutman says we can do this
|
|
|
Post by joemonx on Jan 1, 2008 19:50:44 GMT
great win today! had been coming for a while.
|
|
|
Post by Stewart on Jan 2, 2008 10:57:32 GMT
The last 40 minutes were edge of the seat stuff. When your side are constantly loosing you forget how exciting a game can be. It could become addictive It would be nice to go into the final few minutes with a two goal lead, maybe I’m being greedy.
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 6, 2008 0:21:05 GMT
The new season is progressing well:
2008:
Pld2 W2 L0 F4 A21 Pts6
We need:
Remaining 19 Games: W8 D5 L6 29pts
With Bath / Fisher and Newport to come in Jan we need a min of 4pts to keep us up to schedule, leaving us needing 25pts from 16 games with 6 matches against the teams around us remaining including the 2 against Bognor win these 6 and you will get odds on we are staying up from me!
This is just the start of the great escape, but its more than on!!
|
|
|
Post by The Editor on Jan 6, 2008 15:20:08 GMT
The new season is progressing well: 2008: Pld2 W2 L0 F4 A21 Pts6 Not progressing that well OS - I know we've won both, but to concede 21 in two games is shocking.
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 12, 2008 23:51:12 GMT
When I look at the stats we may of gained today simple both Bognor and Welling are in free fall and might struggle to break 40pts so the bar is now 42pts for survival?
2008 form:
Pld3 W 2 L 1 F 4 A 6 GD -2 Pts 6
We need:
Remaining 18 Games: W7 D6 L5 27pts
Next 2 games are crucial, we could do with 4pts, although 3 will just about do 2 defeats is out of the question and we may face a little bit of needle at home to Newport after last years antics so a nice quiet away win at Fisher will be just what the doctor ordered?
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 20, 2008 12:50:29 GMT
OK so where are we now?
2008 form:
Pos 12th Pld 4 W 2 L 2 F 6 A 10 GD -4 Pts 6
The form guide for last 4 matches sees us sitting 12th some 6 places below the 6th position we need to survive. We needed at least a point from our last 2 games to stay in and around the top 6 as it is we are now 3pts behind where we need to be. A defeat next Saturday against Newport will see us 6pts off the pace meaning that 6th place form will no longer be good enough, we will have to be as good as the top 4 sides in the remaining part of the season.
We need:
Remaining 17 Games: W8 D3 L5 27pts
Anything other than a win next Saturday sees the fat lady enter her changing room before the performance, we are in the last chance saloon. If we don't take 6pts from our next 3 games you might as well stick the paxo in because statistically we are down.
IT REALLY IS NOW OR NEVER, IF WE GOT MONEY WE NEED TO SPEND NOW OUR KEEP IT IN OUR POCKET FOR NEXT SEASON'S PROMOTION FIGHT!!
|
|
Gareth
1st team Player
Goon
Posts: 1,646
|
Post by Gareth on Jan 20, 2008 15:00:27 GMT
Whilst we're all feeling pretty down at the moment, I've just had a look at the predicted final table based on average points per game so far this season.....and it might not be that bad:
1 Lewes 42 29 8 5 92 35 +57 95 2 Eastbourne Borough 42 25 15 2 71 32 +39 90 3 Hampton & Richmond Borough 42 22 11 9 89 53 +36 77 4 Bath City 42 20 15 7 67 32 +35 75 5 Newport County 42 19 15 8 74 46 +28 72 6 Bishop's Stortford 42 20 9 13 80 62 +18 69 7 Eastleigh 42 19 10 13 71 62 +9 67 8 Basingstoke Town 42 19 9 14 62 61 +1 66 9 Fisher Athletic 42 20 5 17 59 62 -3 65 10 Havant & Waterlooville 42 18 11 13 57 61 -4 65 11 Bromley 42 17 9 16 84 68 +16 60 12 Braintree Town 42 16 12 14 46 46 0 60 13 Thurrock 42 13 12 17 57 77 -20 51 14 Hayes & Yeading United 42 12 15 15 54 74 -20 51 15 Cambridge City 42 12 14 16 61 61 0 50 16 Weston-super-Mare 42 14 7 21 61 77 -16 49 17 Maidenhead United 42 10 15 17 58 61 -3 45 18 Welling United 42 9 11 22 37 61 -24 38 19 Bognor Regis Town 42 8 12 22 50 72 -22 36 20 Dorchester Town 42 7 11 24 47 64 -17 32 21 St Albans City 42 5 12 25 35 88 -53 27 22 Sutton United 42 5 10 27 39 92 -53 25
Whilst we're obviously looking doomed at the moment, it's possible that we might only need to reach 37 to stay up. So that's only 22 more points needed - 6 wins and 4 draws. We've got to pick up something from next week's game and again at Bromley to keep the points total ticking over, but then we hit the crucial stage - with games against Thurrock, Dorchester and Bognor. Lose any of them and we're stuffed I think - win them all and who knows?
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 20, 2008 18:39:22 GMT
The thing is we need the right 22pts it relies on us getting results from the teams around us including a double of Bognor these are true 6 pointers.
Must win games
Thurrock H Dorc A Bognor A Welling H Bognor H
Then a min of 7pts though I think we will need more @9pts from other games, its the easiest and probably only realistic route of survival, as I said we are really hanging on by our finger nails here, but is still do-able!
|
|
|
Post by Amber Aleman on Jan 20, 2008 19:44:14 GMT
We're in a fairly tough run of fixtures at the moment, but I agree that we need to be picking up some points from these games to stay in touch.
Next month we have three consecutive home games aginst mid-table sides. However, the Hampton game apart, our home form has not been inspiring!
We then have two potentially crucial games against fellow strugglers Dorchester (away) and Bognor (home).
After that, things get really tough. The run of games from mid March to early April includes the top two at home on consecutive Saturdays, then difficult trips to Stortford and Havant. If we're not out of the bottom three by Easter, then I don't think there will be an escape. (And we might be as good as down well before then.)
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 27, 2008 19:40:06 GMT
2008 form:
Pos Pld 5 W 2 L 3 F 6 A 11 GD -5 Pts 6
I have been a bit of an anorak and done some analysis of February's fixtures involving the bottom 6 sides, the first thing to say is that they will all struggle to pick up points in some very difficult games. The easiest task would appear to ours we play no one from the top six.
Bognor are facing a terrible task with games against Lewes and Eastbourne in consecutive matches, they finish the month at home to Maidenhead which I have them down for their only win in Feb.
Dorchester face 2 tough away matches and 3 at home against Stortford / Eastbourne and us, we have a big say over Dorchester's Conf Sth future, if we win there its hard to see them picking up anything other than a point in Feb, in fact a defeat against us will mean that they could end the season rock bottom on less than 30pts
Maidenhead's form is diving second only to the woeful Welling, with only 4 matches in Feb including away to St Albans and Bognor its hard to see them taking any point in Feb, they could well end the month on 27pts. St Albans form suggest they will avoid relegation with something to spare, I tip them to beat H&Y on Tuesday and follow up with a home win against Maidenhead but they will then find the rest of the month tough going.
Welling have won one match in 10 and are in complete disarray with the worst form in the league without a dramatic turn around in Feb they look favourites to Join Dorchester.
That leaves us, well even if the predicted final points below is a little out we may see the bottom 6 become detached from the rest of the table in Feb. 38pts looks like a surviving total barring some miricle results or form changes by several teams which is not likely. The most likely senario is that one team will have an upturn in form and breakaway, but that may only serve to reduce the points needed to stay up.
We need total of 38pts including a min of 4pts against Bognor to stay up.
Remaining 16 Games: W6 D5 L5 23pts
As of now it looks like Dorchester are doomed and Sutton or Bognor / Maidenhead or Welling will join them, I am not saying we are going to do it but we do have the opportunity and it is in our own hands!
MATCHES UNTILL END OF FEB:
PREDICTED TABLE
()= predicted pts end of feb and end of season:
17 Maidenhead United 31 6 9 12 36 39 -3 27 (27) Predicted (37) 18 St Albans City 30 4 7 14 23 50 -27 19 (26) Predicted (37) 19 Bognor Regis Town 31 5 7 14 30 46 -16 22 (25) Predicted (34) 20 Welling United 30 5 6 14 21 39 -18 21 (24) Predicted (34) 21 Dorchester Town 30 4 6 15 27 42 -15 18 (19) Predicted (27) 22 Sutton United 31 3 6 17 23 56 -33 15 (??) Predicted (??)
Tuesday, 29 January 2008 Dorchester v Bishop's Stortford, 19:45 A Hayes & Yeading v St Albans, 19:45 A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 02 February 2008 Bromley v Sutton Utd, 15:00 Eastleigh v Dorchester, 15:00 H Lewes v Bognor Regis Town, 15:00 H St Albans v Maidenhead Utd, 15:00 H Welling v Cambridge City, 15:00 A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, 05 February 2008 Eastbourne Borough v Bognor Regis Town, 19:45 H Welling v Newport County, 19:45 A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 09 February 2008 Bishop's Stortford v Bognor Regis Town, 15:00 H Dorchester v Eastbourne Borough, 15:00 A Maidenhead Utd v Lewes, 15:00 A St Albans v Newport County, 15:00 A Sutton Utd v Thurrock, 15:00 H Weston-S-Mare v Welling, 15:00 H -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday 12th Feb Sutton V Havant ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 16 February 2008 Bath City v Welling, 15:00 H Bognor Regis Town v Braintree Town, 15:00 D Cambridge City v Dorchester, 15:00 H Eastbourne Borough v St Albans, 15:00 H Maidenhead Utd v Hampton & Richmond, 15:00 A Sutton Utd v Eastleigh, 15:00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday, 23 February 2008 Bognor Regis Town v Maidenhead Utd, 15:00 Dorchester v Sutton Utd, 15:00 Eastleigh v Welling, 15:00 H St Albans v Bath City, 15:00 A
|
|
markf
Top Performer
Posts: 3,205
|
Post by markf on Jan 27, 2008 19:53:56 GMT
OS, Maidenhead have a rather good away record, it's why they have so many points as they have. I reckon they could win at both BRT & St Albans. Anyway, I think only the current bottom 5 (based on current form & points totals thus far) are in the mix for relegation unless one of the others in lower mid table totally capitulates.
I could actually see the current bottom 3 gaining skant reward from Feb's fixtures nor much for BRT & Welling. I reckon the bottom 5 could be even more adrift by the end of Feb. Welling's only hope is if Glenn Cockerill takes over as it is looking very much like he will.
|
|
|
Post by Chalmers on Jan 27, 2008 20:05:58 GMT
Weston are a bit poor at the moment aswell with only their early season form keeping their head above the parapet.
|
|
|
Post by os on Jan 27, 2008 20:10:20 GMT
I think I covered that possibilty at the end, if Maidenhead do breakaway then it will need to be on their away form and with matches against St Albans / Braintree / Bognor the likely upshot of that will be a reduction in the points we need. Bognor has to be a our target. We just have to make sure we pickup enough points in Feb to still be in touch with them when we play in March!
Re Chalmers WSM I looked at that and think that they are just out of reach!
|
|