kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 23, 2024 23:30:09 GMT
No, I do get you. I just don't think a difference of 7 goals in 2 games is really that unfeasible. 3 or 4 goal margins aren't uncommon. We had one tonight. To answer your question, I don't know at what point it would become unsurmountable, but why does it matter when it isn't what we're looking at? It mattters (insofar as it does) because the discussion was about hope. Hope is not a universal yardstick. At the previous point we were looking at a 7 goal in 2 game margin. Say there were 20 people considering that. Allow for the parameters of the season and the general nature of football. Say that 4 of them (me being one) thought 'no hope'. The other 16 think 'hope'. Now say that the margin was 8 goals. A few more might then think 'no hope'. But probably the majority would still think 'hope'. If it were a 10 goal margin then probably the great majority would think 'no hope'. But there would still be one or two hopers. But if you say that something is not insurmountable then, presumably, you have a sense of when it might be, in this context. Which latter would not necessarily accord with others. genghis; Not upset at all. I enjoy a closely argued discussion. Nothing to do with pride, just to do with thinking.
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Post by sallycat on Apr 24, 2024 3:43:07 GMT
See, what I'm saying is that there can't really be a line here. Because there are so many different factors at play. Form, home/away, injuries, relative positions and situations of opponents, etc etc etc could make one say a 9 goal difference (which I'd normally say you couldn't reasonably expect to make up) something that could be overturned. Normally I'd say seven was about the max. But under other circumstances, I might have said it was too unlikely to think about. So yes, I agree. What I judge to be the case might not align with others. I certainly wouldn't try to tell others how to feel about it. If you think "I'd be daft to expect that" then fine. Personally I wouldn't call others foolish for feeling that way, because it works the other way too.
You say the discussion was about hope, which yes it was, but it was also about THIS survival campaign in particular.
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Post by paulc222 on Apr 24, 2024 7:38:50 GMT
Unfortunately a draw is good enough for both of them Saturday. Anybody reminded of Germany v Austria 82 😏 What I’d give for any of those points we’ve dropped this season😞 It could be the biggest stitch-up since the Bayeux Tapestry. If they demonstrably don't try, I think the FL have extraordinary powers to penalise them these days, but it would need to be proven beyond a certain level and would be a major precedent - so highly unlikely.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 24, 2024 8:15:55 GMT
How many of us would have entertained the thought that we'd still be in with a chance (albeit slim) going into the last match of the season.
We've been relegated 3 times before in our history. Everytime we were we went into the last match of the season already relegated, with the best of those being in 90/91 where a 5-2 defeat in the last week of the season at Rockingham Road to kettering sent us down (which I believe was our first ever live TV game, to a broadcast audience of aroud 12). So we're already in new territory, and does show that we didn't throw in the towel.
If we do pull this off, there's a whole Netflix series that could dramatise our escape, but if we don't (either by our own hand or Colchesters) then it will be just "another relegation" but we go down with pride knowing we did do what we could to turn it around.
Just for the record, I think anyone suggesting that other clubs will "fix" a game to send us down is utter bunkum.
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Post by paulc222 on Apr 24, 2024 8:42:40 GMT
How many of us would have entertained the thought that we'd still be in with a chance (albeit slim) going into the last match of the season. We've been relegated 3 times before in our history. Everytime we were we went into the last match of the season already relegated, with the best of those being in 90/91 where a 5-2 defeat in the last week of the season at Rockingham Road to kettering sent us down (which I believe was our first ever live TV game, to a broadcast audience of aroud 12). So we're already in new territory, and does show that we didn't throw in the towel. If we do pull this off, there's a whole Netflix series that could dramatise our escape, but if we don't (either by our own hand or Colchesters) then it will be just "another relegation" but we go down with pride knowing we did do what we could to turn it around. Just for the record, I think anyone suggesting that other clubs will "fix" a game to send us down is utter bunkum. I agree that other teams wouldn't fix a game to send Sutton down, but they might not try too hard in order to keep themselves up (in Colchester's case) and to ensure a play-off slot (in Crewe's case).
I don't suppose there would be a deal made behind the scenes, but you might get both teams playing with one ineffective striker and crowding the midfield.
4-4 then?
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Post by sufc1898 on Apr 24, 2024 9:27:25 GMT
I would think that after 75-80 mins, if we are still drawing and results are going Crewe’s way, then yes, they will probably both take their foot off the gas and play for a draw.
Why wouldn’t they? I’ll be all for this if the shoe was on the other foot.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 24, 2024 9:29:09 GMT
No I don't think there would be a "deal" of any sort. Crewe have to make sure not only they are in the play offs but also finish as high up as they can, and have home advantage in the 2nd leg of the play offs.
This is akin to saying a politician in the UK gets in because of voting fraud before an election takes place.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 24, 2024 9:39:54 GMT
Two questions arise ahead of Saturday's crucial games in League Two.
1. What sort of side will MK Dons put out? Whatever the result against us, they'll finish 4th and have home advantage in the second leg of a play-off semi-final. Their manager may very well rest key players, not wanting to risk injuries or suspensions that would rule them out of the play-off matches. But I'd still expect him to pick a side that he reckons have a good chance of winning. No manager wants to see his team lose.
2. How much do Crewe want to finish 5th? That would give them home advantage in the second leg of the other play-off semi-final. If they win at Colchester, and Doncaster fail to win at Gillingham, 5th place is theirs. A win would also boost their confidence following some disappointing recent results. On the other hand, a draw at Colchester would be a satisfactory result for both sides; Colchester would seal survival (at our expense) and Crewe would seal a play-off place (though it might only be 7th).
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,197
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 24, 2024 10:49:23 GMT
See, what I'm saying is that there can't really be a line here. Because there are so many different factors at play. Form, home/away, injuries, relative positions and situations of opponents, etc etc etc could make one say a 9 goal difference (which I'd normally say you couldn't reasonably expect to make up) something that could be overturned. Normally I'd say seven was about the max. But under other circumstances, I might have said it was too unlikely to think about. So yes, I agree. What I judge to be the case might not align with others. I certainly wouldn't try to tell others how to feel about it. If you think "I'd be daft to expect that" then fine. Personally I wouldn't call others foolish for feeling that way, because it works the other way too. You say the discussion was about hope, which yes it was, but it was also about THIS survival campaign in particular. Yes, I do see that the nub of it has to be about how things are, not how they could have been. But a lot of the discussion that we have, here, is about what 'hasn't happened'. Every comment to the effect 'if only the lino had seen that', or 'if only the Ref hadn't done this' is a comment about what isn't actually the case. So are the comments on this thread about 'if only we'd held on for the extra points in this or that match'. It's all 'the world as it is not'. In some ways that thinking is pointless. But we naturally do it. And it's a way of getting a fix on how well or bad, or possible, things actually are. Despite the excellent result (for us) last night, I still think there's too much left to do. I can concieve (just) that we might be 3-0 up, and Colchester 2-0, down with 15 mins to play in our final matches. But were that ther case I still think either Colchester will find it in themselves to grab a goal, or we would contrive (as we so often have done) to conceed a goal in the dying minutes. It's just been that kind of season. But as well as being astonished if we pull this off, no one will be happier than me. And I'd gladly eat all the humble pie that would come my way.
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Post by localboy86 on Apr 24, 2024 11:12:35 GMT
Sky are televising the Colchester v Crewe clash on Saturday afternoon. Come on Crewe!!
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Post by toothman on Apr 24, 2024 12:07:02 GMT
How many of us would have entertained the thought that we'd still be in with a chance (albeit slim) going into the last match of the season. We've been relegated 3 times before in our history. Everytime we were we went into the last match of the season already relegated, with the best of those being in 90/91 where a 5-2 defeat in the last week of the season at Rockingham Road to kettering sent us down (which I believe was our first ever live TV game, to a broadcast audience of aroud 12). So we're already in new territory, and does show that we didn't throw in the towel. If we do pull this off, there's a whole Netflix series that could dramatise our escape, but if we don't (either by our own hand or Colchesters) then it will be just "another relegation" but we go down with pride knowing we did do what we could to turn it around. Just for the record, I think anyone suggesting that other clubs will "fix" a game to send us down is utter bunkum. As this is squarely aimed at me - I am not suggesting that teams would deliberately agree to fix the game. The circumstances "fix" the outcome in the players and managements heads i.e. if both sides need a draw - a draw will be the inevitable consequence. There is precedent the 1-0 Germany -Austria in the World Cup group stages in 1982. The "Disgrace of Gijon" ; The Austrian players subsequently admitted it was fixed but FIFAA said no rules had been broken . Coventry v Morecambe - 0-0 outcome in May 2018 . The only glimmer of hope is that Crewe may want to try and sneak a win to finish 5th and to try and take some momentum into the playoffs. Their form has been terrible lately. So a single goal loss for Col U means we have to win by a 4 goal margin. Not only is GD against us , GF are also that would be our down fall if GD is equal- then it goes to GS and after that games won (as the games between us in the season were both 1-1 draws) ColU 11 Sutton 10
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Post by Andy K on Apr 24, 2024 12:14:48 GMT
How many of us would have entertained the thought that we'd still be in with a chance (albeit slim) going into the last match of the season. We've been relegated 3 times before in our history. Everytime we were we went into the last match of the season already relegated, with the best of those being in 90/91 where a 5-2 defeat in the last week of the season at Rockingham Road to kettering sent us down (which I believe was our first ever live TV game, to a broadcast audience of aroud 12). So we're already in new territory, and does show that we didn't throw in the towel. If we do pull this off, there's a whole Netflix series that could dramatise our escape, but if we don't (either by our own hand or Colchesters) then it will be just "another relegation" but we go down with pride knowing we did do what we could to turn it around. Just for the record, I think anyone suggesting that other clubs will "fix" a game to send us down is utter bunkum. As this is squarely aimed at me - I am not suggesting that teams would deliberately agree to fix the game. The circumstances "fix" the outcome in the players and managements heads i.e. if both sides need a draw - a draw will be the inevitable consequence. There is precedent the 1-0 Germany -Austria in the World Cup group stages in 1982. The "Disgrace of Gijon" ; The Austrian players subsequently admitted it was fixed but FIFAA said no rules had been broken . Coventry v Morecambe - 0-0 outcome in May 2018 . The only glimmer of hope is that Crewe may want to try and sneak a win to finish 5th and to try and take some momentum into the playoffs. Their form has been terrible lately. So a single goal loss for Col U means we have to win by a 4 goal margin. Not only is GD against us , GF are also that would be our down fall if GD is equal- then it goes to GS and after that games won (as the games between us in the season were both 1-1 draws) ColU 11 Sutton 10 No Neil, it's not aimed squarely at you. It's aimed at anyone who thinks that two teams will fix a game to send us down. Which, as you've maide clear isn't you.
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Post by garethl on Apr 24, 2024 12:31:52 GMT
Live on tv - makes it harder to play out a grubby no effort to score 0-0.
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Post by sallycat on Apr 24, 2024 12:32:02 GMT
See, what I'm saying is that there can't really be a line here. Because there are so many different factors at play. Form, home/away, injuries, relative positions and situations of opponents, etc etc etc could make one say a 9 goal difference (which I'd normally say you couldn't reasonably expect to make up) something that could be overturned. Normally I'd say seven was about the max. But under other circumstances, I might have said it was too unlikely to think about. So yes, I agree. What I judge to be the case might not align with others. I certainly wouldn't try to tell others how to feel about it. If you think "I'd be daft to expect that" then fine. Personally I wouldn't call others foolish for feeling that way, because it works the other way too. You say the discussion was about hope, which yes it was, but it was also about THIS survival campaign in particular. Yes, I do see that the nub of it has to be about how things are, not how they could have been. But a lot of the discussion that we have, here, is about what 'hasn't happened'. Every comment to the effect 'if only the lino had seen that', or 'if only the Ref hadn't done this' is a comment about what isn't actually the case. So are the comments on this thread about 'if only we'd held on for the extra points in this or that match'. It's all 'the world as it is not'. In some ways that thinking is pointless. But we naturally do it. And it's a way of getting a fix on how well or bad, or possible, things actually are. Despite the excellent result (for us) last night, I still think there's too much left to do. I can concieve (just) that we might be 3-0 up, and Colchester 2-0, down with 15 mins to play in our final matches. But were that ther case I still think either Colchester will find it in themselves to grab a goal, or we would contrive (as we so often have done) to conceed a goal in the dying minutes. It's just been that kind of season. But as well as being astonished if we pull this off, no one will be happier than me. And I'd gladly eat all the humble pie that would come my way. And now we are in complete agreement I also think those "if only x hadn't happened" discussions are futile and lead to nothing but disappointment. Nobody could possibly known what would actually have come to pass in that scenario or whether the eventual outcome would've been any different (perhaps even worse!). Furthermore, Colchester and everyone else have their own set of things that might have happened but didn't!
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Post by fran1 on Apr 24, 2024 13:05:41 GMT
I have stayed away on this thread as I do not see the point of going on and on about what our players did wrong this season or what they should have done. That is just my opinion. We all are entitled to our own. I will be attending the MK Dons match on Saturday to applaud our team at the end of the match regardless of the outcome. I am expecting us to be relegated; I need to be realistic for the sake of my normally low blood pressure. I am quite ancient you see! I shall be supporting my beloved team next season (in National League or not) and have paid for my season ticket.
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