I found this post on the Swindon forum.
linkLooking at the current PPG chart (for the previous 10 games) got me thinking about where Town might finish in L2 this season, especially given a bit of additional data to peruse.
Apologies in advance for any errors but I think it's all correct (at the time of writing) and I've carried it over from the recent Matchday Fred as it seemed a relevant separate Topic to discuss.
Here's a "Final Table" based on all the teams current pts and then applying a ppg (based off their last 10 results) form using the data Jimmy posted. I've highlighted Town and other teams with key potential successes/dangers (based on their current form) so these are around the PO and relegation spots. Crawley and Crewe are interesting ones in the relegation stakes. Both Walsall and Sutton pose threats in the PO chase with Northampton potentially coming a Roy! If nothing else it is interesting to see where each team would/might finish according to said data. Currently Town would finish about 15th...which I don't think any of us would accept.
League Two PPG Final Table
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Team Played Pts PPG Pts Gain Prj Pts
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Stevenage 28 57 1.7 30.6 88
Leyton Orient 31 63 1.3 19.5 83
Carlisle United 30 52 1.9 30.4 82
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Stockport County 29 45 2.0 34 79
Salford City 30 48 1.7 27.2 75
Mansfield Town 29 46 1.6 27.2 73
Northampton Town 29 50 1.3 22.1 72
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Walsall 27 41 1.6 30.4 71
Sutton United 30 41 1.8 28.8 70
Doncaster Rovers 29 43 1.5 25.5 69
Bradford City 28 43 1.2 21.6 65
Colchester United 31 34 2.0 30 64
AFC Wimbledon 29 40 1.4 23.8 64
Tranmere Rovers 30 41 1.4 22.4 63
SWINDON TOWN 29 42 1.1 18.7 61
Newport County 28 30 1.6 28.8 59
Grimsby Town 26 33 1.0 20 53
Barrow 30 42 0.7 11.2 53
Harrogate Town 28 27 1.4 25.2 52
Hartlepool United 30 26 1.4 22.4 48
Crewe Alexandra 28 34 0.7 12.6 47
Gillingham 28 24 1.1 19.8 44
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Crawley Town 27 25 0.9 17.1 42
Rochdale 30 23 0.6 9.6 33
I wonder what my fave chum SdM would make of this applied data? Although more importantly and as the thread suggests, where in the table do you think Town will finish the season?
I'm going to punt for about 11th. I think the form will improve slightly to maybe a max of 1.4ppg but not enough to clinch a PO place. Win v Sutton on Tues and that might change but it would still have to followed up with another win as the ppg form would then jump from 1.1 to 1.5 or 1.6 with back to back wins. Tough ask with where Town currently are at. That's not taking into account having a full complement of defensive players to select either. Yep, I'll go with a bit of a damp underachieving squib of just not quite having enough!
Verdict: A disappointing 11th* with questions of just what happened with the potential weakening the overall strength of the squad in January, when it seemed like Town should've been adding to what they already had to really mount a PO/Auto promotion push.