Post by Amber Aleman on Dec 9, 2007 23:38:32 GMT
Ernie Howe is quoted in the NLP as saying he believes he can turn things round at Sutton. So, having picked up the point at Welling, what does he now need to do to keep us up?
We've got 7 points from 18 matches. Nobody is under any illusion that hauling us out of that hole is an almighty task.
47 points would have been enough to keep a club up in any of the last three seasons - and 44 would have sufficed in either of the last two. So 40 points from our remaining 24 matches should do it! I'd set a target of 42 to give ourselves a bit of a safety margin.
That means we'd have to win around half of those 24 matches, and draw another quarter. Our form will need to look something like W12 D6 L6. This requires EH (perhaps using the additional funds at his disposal?) to bring about an immediate - and sustained - improvement in results. As others have observed, Sutton will need to show play-off form between now and the end of the season.
I think this is achievable - but only just! It looks to me to be at the very limit of what can reasonably be expected.
One way of looking at the situation is to divide the rest of the season into six groups of four fixtures each. To stay on course for safety, we'd need to take 7 points (on average) from each quartet of matches. If we start picking up points at a slower rate than that, then frankly I think we'll be leaving ourselves with too much to do and relegation will be all but inevitable.
The next four league fixtures are Stortford H, Hampton A, Maidenhead A and Hampton H. The game at Hampton looks the most difficult. If we lose that, by my reckoning we'd want two wins and a draw from the other three.
In the meantime, we have the diversion of the Trophy game against Forest Green. I don't think we should worry too much about the result - as long as we're not humiliated! If we give a good account of ourselves against BS Premier opposition, that could stand the team in good stead for the encounter with Stortford seven days later.
Here's to staying up!
We've got 7 points from 18 matches. Nobody is under any illusion that hauling us out of that hole is an almighty task.
47 points would have been enough to keep a club up in any of the last three seasons - and 44 would have sufficed in either of the last two. So 40 points from our remaining 24 matches should do it! I'd set a target of 42 to give ourselves a bit of a safety margin.
That means we'd have to win around half of those 24 matches, and draw another quarter. Our form will need to look something like W12 D6 L6. This requires EH (perhaps using the additional funds at his disposal?) to bring about an immediate - and sustained - improvement in results. As others have observed, Sutton will need to show play-off form between now and the end of the season.
I think this is achievable - but only just! It looks to me to be at the very limit of what can reasonably be expected.
One way of looking at the situation is to divide the rest of the season into six groups of four fixtures each. To stay on course for safety, we'd need to take 7 points (on average) from each quartet of matches. If we start picking up points at a slower rate than that, then frankly I think we'll be leaving ourselves with too much to do and relegation will be all but inevitable.
The next four league fixtures are Stortford H, Hampton A, Maidenhead A and Hampton H. The game at Hampton looks the most difficult. If we lose that, by my reckoning we'd want two wins and a draw from the other three.
In the meantime, we have the diversion of the Trophy game against Forest Green. I don't think we should worry too much about the result - as long as we're not humiliated! If we give a good account of ourselves against BS Premier opposition, that could stand the team in good stead for the encounter with Stortford seven days later.
Here's to staying up!