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Post by Andy K on Mar 31, 2020 22:05:42 GMT
It's not over until the fat lady sings ! From that statement from the National League, she's not even warmed up yet!
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Post by cheshire on Apr 1, 2020 10:15:00 GMT
So, if I understand correctly, the FA and the powers that be are trying to decide what is the football equivalent of Duckworth Lewis??
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Post by sallycat on Apr 1, 2020 10:34:34 GMT
That's the analogy I've been using too!
I agree that we shouldn't be reading too much into statements like that or the use of words like "conclude." There's nothing to read between the lines (and if there is, it's probably got more to do with the opinions of whoever put the article together than anything else) because nothing has been decided.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 1, 2020 10:39:46 GMT
I had to google Duckworth Lewis (not being into cricket!) but yes, that looks a good parallel.
BTW the title of this thread refers to there (almost certainly) being no more NL football in what's left of 2019/20. It doesn't extend to the discussions about how to resolve that situation. Some people take things a bit too literally.
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Post by baboonfish on Apr 1, 2020 11:25:57 GMT
That's the analogy I've been using too! Ha, me too! I'm not really understanding why the prospect of a null season 80 % complete is even being entertained when some maths could fix it. Any team with a high statistical probability of promotion/relegation should go up/down, the rest should play off as soon as practical before the start of 21/22. Scrap the play off promotion place in each league, so for our div just one up two down. Chorley would go down with one other team, weighted play off games to decide who. You'd probably need to involve aldershot and below as our div is quite tight at the bottom, but still only talking a handful of games. Barrow would probably be right on the edge when it comes to modeling their statistical probability of winning the league. In such scenarios they would probably need a goal advantage as well as home advantage against the winner of a play offs between the 4 teams below. Some divisions would be much more cut and dried, for example, in the prem, leeds and west brom would clearly go up and Norwich down, 4 teams above villa are too close to call and should play off to see who plays at home to villa in a relegation play off.
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 1, 2020 11:31:12 GMT
So, if I understand correctly, the FA and the powers that be are trying to decide what is the football equivalent of Duckworth Lewis?? Amazingly, you just managed to make the situation even more controversial. I'm impressed!
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 1, 2020 11:50:38 GMT
I think the issue with the Duckworth Lewis analogy is that D-L is built into the laws of cricket as a normal way of resolving limited overs matches interupted by weather or other circumstances.
As it has official status when any cricket team starts their season they know that some of their match results will be determined by means of D-L (and it's worth remembering that it's still massively unpopular). That's not the case with football. None of the teams have signed up to any such method and many will object. Especialy, of course, if they feel this solution is to their disadvantage.
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Post by Andy K on Apr 1, 2020 11:52:06 GMT
That's the thing. Whatever decision is made (bearing in mind no one actually knows when we will get out of it) there will be winners and losers. Deny relegation and promotion and there will celebrations and some very pissed off sides. Same if they decide to do any other mathematical method.
The issue is that there's nothing clear in the rule book for this BEFORE the season started. So it's fumbling in the dark. Even the decision in the lower leagues to write off the season which initially was announced that the clubs agreed seems like it wasn't the case.
Pretty clear to me we're in a catch 22. It's too early to really say what the best option will be yet quite rightly the clubs are demanding clarity.
I'm glad I'm not one of the ones making that call.
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markf
Top Performer
Posts: 3,191
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Post by markf on Apr 1, 2020 12:09:10 GMT
I had to google Duckworth Lewis (not being into cricket!) but yes, that looks a good parallel. BTW the title of this thread refers to there (almost certainly) being no more NL football in what's left of 2019/20. It doesn't extend to the discussions about how to resolve that situation. Some people take things a bit too literally. Or just read what is presented in front of them and, God preserve us, ask a question.
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Post by cheshire on Apr 1, 2020 12:20:08 GMT
A good season to finish in mid table (well finish for the time being anyway....) At least we avoid the stress and uncertainty surely being felt by those at either end of the League Table
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Apr 1, 2020 13:20:34 GMT
It's the very fact that there IS nothing in the rules that cover this situation that makes me feel that voiding the season (assuming we cannot complete it, fully, including promotion play-offs) is the most logical and fairest (sic) thing to do.
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Post by baboonfish on Apr 1, 2020 15:06:30 GMT
It's the very fact that there IS nothing in the rules that cover this situation that makes me feel that voiding the season (assuming we cannot complete it, fully, including promotion play-offs) is the most logical and fairest (sic) thing to do. I don't think it would even be an argument if the season was like 60% complete or something. But being that it's so close to the end, the null and void option is just so grossly unfair, whereas scrapping play off promotion places and working the rest out with some modeling and maths with a weighted play off is likely to result in far fewer potential law suits and generally a fairer outcome for all sides involved at the top or bottom of their leagues. At the very least sides who have a certain or near certain probability of coming top/bottom should be promoted/relegated. And I don't see why a side like Chorley or Norwich should get to stay in a division they're clearly I'll equipped to compete in because of this, it's beyond unfair imo and just plain stupid. Not saying there any easy answer but just that surely it can be worked out in a way that's acceptable and fair to the vast majority. Our division is in an unusual position whereby one team surely has to go up due to the bury scenario, so in that situation is it fair to simply allow barrow to go up? And how do you fairly decide which one side replace them when two leagues feed in? If that happens you'd have to relegate Chorley anyway to allow one team from each north and south to come up unless North South average points 'winners' play off, in which case why not have more extensive playoffs as per my suggestion? Likewise league 2 needs to promote a team unless one of the leagues operates with 23 teams again. there's barely a hair between the top 3 sides in league 2 so good luck making that decision without a play off.
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Post by medwaysider on Apr 1, 2020 16:46:08 GMT
"Likewise league 2 needs to promote a team unless one of the leagues operates with 23 teams again. there's barely a hair between the top 3 sides in league 2 so good luck making that decision without a play off."
Just curious, would the EFL consider an "old pals act" and restore Bury to their league status? I think it's highly unlikely and tantamount to the old re-election days, but would you put it past them?
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Post by Amber Aleman on Apr 1, 2020 19:24:19 GMT
Just curious, would the EFL consider an "old pals act" and restore Bury to their league status? I think it's highly unlikely and tantamount to the old re-election days, but would you put it past them? Bury FC are not a viable entity; no income, debts of £5m and I'd guess precious little in the way of assets. Plus the owner Steve Dale has defaulted on the CVA. Unless a white knight rides to the rescue, liquidation looks all but inevitable. What that probably means is that the EFL will continue to be a club short unless they accept a promoted club from the National League. This gives the NL some negotiating muscle!
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Post by medwaysider on Apr 1, 2020 21:13:08 GMT
Just curious, would the EFL consider an "old pals act" and restore Bury to their league status? I think it's highly unlikely and tantamount to the old re-election days, but would you put it past them? Bury FC are not a viable entity; no income, debts of £5m and I'd guess precious little in the way of assets. Plus the owner Steve Dale has defaulted on the CVA. Unless a white knight rides to the rescue, liquidation looks all but inevitable. What that probably means is that the EFL will continue to be a club short unless they accept a promoted club from the National League. This gives the NL some negotiating muscle! I'll readily agree that how they're managing to stay afloat without any income is mystifying. I don't know whether they own Gigg Lane. If they do, that'd be worth a few million. Naturally if they're liquidated it's a direct path to the NW Counties League but we all know that there are many dysfunctionally run clubs in the EFL and most have escaped any form of meaningful censure. It definitely won't be a white knight riding to the rescue, more likely a cowboy or court jester if the history of the football industry is anything to go by. Should be out of Tamplin's reach at any rate!
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