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Post by bailo on Mar 29, 2021 15:03:21 GMT
Still taking 85 points as enough to win the title that leaves Sutton, Notts County, Torquay, Hartlepool, Stockport, Chesterfield, Maidenhead and Wrexham as being mathematically possible to reach that figure. All but the first 3 of those will need to win all their remaining games to reach it. This makes Wrexham's upcoming trio of fixtures extremely important (if not pivotal) as they play Notts County and Torquay over the Easter weekend, followed by Stockport on the 10th - which is the same day Hartlepool and Notts face off. Too much to hope for 4 draws out of that lot?!
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kpinwp
1st team Player
Posts: 1,190
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Post by kpinwp on Mar 29, 2021 16:02:24 GMT
We've surely reached the point where this is no longer "just for fun". We're now contemplating a probability, not just a possibility, that little old SUFC will be competing in the Football League next season. 😲 It would take quite a startling collapse in form by us, or a spectacular burst of form by a club below us, for the NL title to go elsewhere. Neither should be discounted of course, and we take nothing for granted, but there's scant evidence of either happening. I'm increasingly confident that Matt and the players have the right focus to see this season through to a glorious conclusion. So get ready folks. When we're allowed back into grounds, the chances are that we won't just be picking up where we left off pre-pandemic. The experience of supporting our club is set to become rather different. Reading around other teams' fans' forums, and taking into account the National League top 6 prediction link that was recently posted, it does seem that other fans are being a little bolder in assessing our chances of taking top spot that we are ourselves.
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Post by Amber Aleman on Mar 29, 2021 16:23:13 GMT
I reckon, with Dover now out of the frame, 80 points should be enough to win the title. Notts, with their games-in-hand advantage, would need 34 points to reach that total - which is ten wins and four draws from their 16 remaining matches. As ten of those matches are away, including trips to Hartlepool, Torquay, Eastleigh and Wrexham, that's a pretty big ask. Their recent form isn't great, with only two wins in their last eight league games. Of course, their new manager might be a miracle worker.
We need 19 points (five wins and four draws) from our final 13 games to reach 80 points.
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Post by Del on Mar 29, 2021 17:00:58 GMT
Might be cutting it a bit fine with 80 points and Dos's mantra was if you get an average of 2 points a game that would normally win the League. This season that would be 84 points.
Some tough games for us to negotiate yet and Boreham Wood is never easy.
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Post by toothman on Mar 29, 2021 17:48:56 GMT
Might be cutting it a bit fine with 80 points and Dos's mantra was if you get an average of 2 points a game that would normally win the League. This season that would be 84 points. Some tough game for us to negotiate yet and Boreham Wood is never easy. I think we should take each step at a time. 1. We have exceeded 50 points so safe from relegation. ( I know there isn’t any but it’s still a significant milestone in any season) 2. Play offs normally assured with 75 points in a 46 match season - so 42/46 x 75 = 68.5 , so let’s say 8 more points to be certain of 7 place. 3. I think 84 points will be enough for the title provided we don’t lose to Notts County and Torquay and results i.e. lots of draws for our rivals happen. 4.we have to lose sometime and some of our recent draws have been good for morale but a win and a lose is 3 points and 2 draws is 2 points. We are not Man City who look invincible- we are nearly on par with Norwich, but better than Hull or Cambridge We will be cheering lots of different rivals on in the coming weeks - starting with Aldershot tomorrow.
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Post by toothman on Mar 29, 2021 17:50:56 GMT
Might be cutting it a bit fine with 80 points and Dos's mantra was if you get an average of 2 points a game that would normally win the League. This season that would be 84 points. Some tough game for us to negotiate yet and Boreham Wood is never easy. I think we should take each step at a time. 1. We have exceeded 50 points so safe from relegation. ( I know there isn’t any but it’s still a significant milestone in any season) 2. Play offs normally assured with 75 points in a 46 match season - so 42/46 x 75 = 68.5 , so let’s say 8 more points to be certain of 7 place. 3. I think 84 points will be enough for the title provided we don’t lose to Notts County and Torquay and results i.e. lots of draws cut for our rivals happen. 4.we have to lose sometime and some of our recent draws have been good for morale but a win and a lose is 3 points and 2 draws is 2 points. We are not Man City who look invincible- we are nearly on par with Norwich, but better than Hull or Cambridge We will be cheering lots of different rivals on in the coming weeks - starting with Aldershot tomorrow.
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,075
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Post by oohaah on Mar 29, 2021 18:53:27 GMT
Ain't that the tooth...
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Post by Andy K on Mar 30, 2021 10:05:39 GMT
Might be cutting it a bit fine with 80 points and Dos's mantra was if you get an average of 2 points a game that would normally win the League. This season that would be 84 points. Some tough games for us to negotiate yet and Boreham Wood is never easy. Looking at past seasons with 22 teams in the division, the lowest I could find (and I'm not including those stupid seasons just before we went up when you got more points for an away win than a home win) was 75 points. You've got me into statto land again, so I'm going to do a PPG comparison, and the points they won the league by 87 - Scarborough - 2.17 - 6 88 - Lincoln - 1.95 - 2 89 - Maidstone - 2.10 - 8 90 - Darlington - 2.07 - 2 91 - Barnet - 2.07 - 2 92 - Colchester - 2.24 - 0 93 - Wycombe - 1.98 - 15 94 - Kidderminster - 1.79 - 3 95 - Macclesfield - 1.90 - 5 96 - Stevenage - 2.17 - 12 97 - Macclesfield - 2.14 - 5 98 - Halifax - 2.07 - 9 99 - Cheltenham - 1.90 - 4 00 - Kidderminster - 2.02 - 9 01 - Rushden and Diamonds - 2.04 - 6 02 - Boston United - 2.00 - 0 03 - Yeovil - 2.26 - 17 04 - Chester - 2.19 - 1 05 - Barnet - 2.04 - 8 06 - Accrington - 2.17 - 11 07 - Dag & Red - 2.07 - 14 08 - Aldershot - 2.20 - 15 09 - Burton - 1.91 - 2 10 - Stevenage - 2.25 - 11 11 - Crawley - 2.28 - 15 12 - Fleetwood - 2.24 - 5 13 - Mansfield - 2.07 -2 14 - Luton - 2.20 - 19 15 - Barnet - 2.00 - 1 16 - Cheltenham - 2.20 - 13 17 - Lincoln - 2.15 - 4 18 - Macclesfield - 2.00 - 10 19 - Leyton Orient - 2.12 - 3 20 - Barrow - 1.89 - 4 That gives an average over 34 seasons of 2.08 PPG to win the title. For this season that actually equates to 88 points. This of course doesn't allow for by how much the team won the league by (which from what I've seen has varied from anything between 1 and 19 points!). We're currently on 2.10 PPG. That's a PPG that would give us the title in 18 out of those 34 seasons.
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,075
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Post by oohaah on Mar 30, 2021 10:11:54 GMT
So what happens if you remove the PPG for those teams that were too good to be in this league and simply ran away with it?
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Post by Andy K on Mar 30, 2021 10:37:13 GMT
So what happens if you remove the PPG for those teams that were too good to be in this league and simply ran away with it? I've added how much they won the league by. There isn't a hard and fast rule where the most PPG equates to the largest margin of victory. Sometimes 2 teams can run away with it, or a team's PPG is low but they still ran away with it. Think it's probably too early to say how this season will compare with previous ones, which is why I still think 85 points is a pretty much "best guess", but as the games tick off, and we get to the end of April, I expect that total will be revised. What I do feel more confident about is that 70 points should easily be enough to be in a play off spot. So we're 9 points from our next target.
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Post by sufc1898 on Mar 30, 2021 10:42:07 GMT
I actually think the next target is 3 points on Friday.
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Post by Andy K on Mar 30, 2021 11:05:58 GMT
I actually think the next target is 3 points on Friday. I get what you mean, but season milestones should never be ignored!
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Post by sol on Mar 30, 2021 11:30:18 GMT
I actually think the next target is 3 points on Friday. SUFC1898 Hope all’s well. Are you part of the management at the club (Matt’s staff)? The reason I ask - isn’t this season the kind that supporters dream of and watch a team there entire life to enjoy... Even if we blow up and finish 11th - it’s still will always be a remarkable season. Enjoy football ⚽️ it’s not a matter of life and ......it’s a game.
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Post by sufc1898 on Mar 30, 2021 12:17:40 GMT
I’m a normal fan!! Nothing to do with MG
We can all guess on what our nearest rivals might/might not do in the next dozen games or so, but the main focus is on our team, and getting as many points as possible and see where it takes us.
I’m dreaming too, but with one eye open.
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Post by Andy K on Mar 31, 2021 11:09:53 GMT
Obviously a small update - Notts can now only get a maximum of 91 points with 15 games remaining. Winning their games in hand will put them 1 point ahead of Torquay, 4 points ahead of Hartlepool and 9 points behind us.
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