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Post by os on Apr 29, 2021 20:45:00 GMT
I remember it well os, and the confusion it caused! I think at the time FWP were giving each team 2 extra points for 'draws' against Dover? It might be nice to do another one (with perhaps just the top 7 or so) which, I believe, will show us as 7th. I can knock up another, might as well wait until Saturday now, but yes I think it shows we have in theory secured the last play off place in 7th. The main aim is to show that the prediction was not too far out and it doesn't change much in way of points needed. 2pts per match is what a team normally averages on a good run, making the bar really 82pts, it really would take a fantastic run from Torquay or Stockport to move it to 85 or more.
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billy
1st team skipper
Posts: 2,627
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Post by billy on Apr 29, 2021 20:51:00 GMT
JUST FOR KICKS
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Post by brisfitboy on Apr 30, 2021 9:06:18 GMT
I know it’s silly but I had a vivid dream last night and the top spot was between Sutton and Hartlepool, Torquay was knocked out of the running at the last hurdle. The champion will be the winner of the Sutton v Hartlepool game.
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Post by Stewart on Apr 30, 2021 12:22:41 GMT
Although our recent form as been rather poor we are still favourites to win the league. The current best odds are:
SUFC 1/1 TU 9/4 SC 17/2 HU 9/1
It does seem reassuring, however, it is a four-horse race, so does that really mean we have just a one in four chance to win the league? Maybe a betting expert can explain it all to me?
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Post by Andy K on Apr 30, 2021 12:58:49 GMT
Although our recent form as been rather poor we are still favourites to win the league. The current best odds are: SUFC 1/1 TU 9/4 SC 17/2 HU 9/1 It does seem reassuring, however, it is a four-horse race, so does that really mean we have just a one in four chance to win the league? Maybe a betting expert can explain it all to me? The thing about betting odds is that they are not especially reliable. Generally they are set by what the bookies think will happen, but then are affected by how many bets they get for that outcome. So theoretically you can have a situation like in the upcoming Mayoral election where fringe candidate Brian Rose is 2nd favourite to win the election when all the polling have him hardly registering. If lots of people put bets on an outcome, those odds shorten (Rose himself admitted putting a significant amount of money on himself to win!) Obviously that is an extreme case, but all of those odds will affected by those who are betting on the outcome based on things yet to have taken place. As you know we all think different things could happen, but it's at best an indicator which can be easily manipulated.
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trev
1st team skipper
In Matt We Trust
Posts: 2,477
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Post by trev on Apr 30, 2021 13:14:41 GMT
Odds are little more than a snapshot of what the current situation is. As such, they have a tendency to fluctuate wildly during the course of a season. Bear in mind that our pre-season odds for promotion were something in the region of 25/1...
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Post by sallycat on Apr 30, 2021 14:40:29 GMT
Although our recent form as been rather poor we are still favourites to win the league. The current best odds are: SUFC 1/1 TU 9/4 SC 17/2 HU 9/1 It does seem reassuring, however, it is a four-horse race, so does that really mean we have just a one in four chance to win the league? Maybe a betting expert can explain it all to me? I always assumed this was how it worked but I'd be grateful to be corrected if I'm wrong because then I'll learn something. 1/1 means they think we're as likely as not to win it. Hartlepool's 9/1 means the bookies think they're nine times less likely to win it than not. It's more complicated when the other number isn't a one, i.e. Torquay's 9/4 means they think they're two and a quarter times less likely to win it than not to win it. This means out of the four "horses" in this race, they think there's a 50% chance we'll win it, just over 30% Torquay, 10.5% Stockport and 10% Hartlepool. This adds up to a bit over 100% of course, but this is a simplified example assuming you're starting with proportions of exactly 100%, which you never really are. And also because they're not exactly going to go around offering odds like 16.33/1 are they
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,076
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Post by oohaah on May 1, 2021 9:51:47 GMT
You can still get 2500/1 on Maidenhead getting automatic Promotion (Bet365) and 1000/1 on Barnet getting promotion (William Hill).
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,076
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Post by oohaah on May 1, 2021 9:54:48 GMT
Quick question - Why is Tanto's racehourse Aduraoluwatimileyin never going to win the Grand National?
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,076
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Post by oohaah on May 1, 2021 18:17:20 GMT
Well I'm not going to worry about the conniptions of the Prediction Police, so I'm going with: Torquay D, D, D, L, W, W, 79 Hartlepool D, D, W, W, W, W, 81 Stockport D, W, W, W, W, W, 81 Sutton W, D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Well how rubbish am I? 1 out of 4 is poor however I feel badly let down by Eastleigh, Halifax, and Chesterfield all of which should have done better today I think.
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Post by Andy K on May 1, 2021 18:36:09 GMT
Well I'm not going to worry about the conniptions of the Prediction Police, so I'm going with: Torquay D, D, D, L, W, W, 79 Hartlepool D, D, W, W, W, W, 81 Stockport D, W, W, W, W, W, 81 Sutton W, D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Well how rubbish am I? 1 out of 4 is poor however I feel badly let down by Eastleigh, Halifax, and Chesterfield all of which should have done better today I think. Seems like fwp got it right though!
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trev
1st team skipper
In Matt We Trust
Posts: 2,477
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Post by trev on May 1, 2021 19:08:13 GMT
Well I'm not going to worry about the conniptions of the Prediction Police, so I'm going with: Torquay D, D, D, L, W, W, 79 Hartlepool D, D, W, W, W, W, 81 Stockport D, W, W, W, W, W, 81 Sutton W, D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Conniptions. I've never come across that before. I think that should scoop the word of the week award!
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oohaah
Top Performer
Posts: 3,076
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Post by oohaah on May 1, 2021 21:42:01 GMT
Well I'm not going to worry about the conniptions of the Prediction Police, so I'm going with: Torquay D, D, D, L, W, W, 79 Hartlepool D, D, W, W, W, W, 81 Stockport D, W, W, W, W, W, 81 Sutton W, D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Conniptions. I've never come across that before. I think that should scoop the word of the week award! Well you don't reach 83 points - sorry, I mean 67 years of age, without picking up the occasional cool word...
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Post by sallycat on May 2, 2021 11:11:25 GMT
Well I'm not going to worry about the conniptions of the Prediction Police, so I'm going with: Torquay D, D, D, L, W, W, 79 Hartlepool D, D, W, W, W, W, 81 Stockport D, W, W, W, W, W, 81 Sutton W, D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Conniptions. I've never come across that before. I think that should scoop the word of the week award! I love that word. It makes me think of old-school Southern Belles
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oohaah
Top Performer
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Post by oohaah on May 2, 2021 11:22:27 GMT
Well nothing much changes for me, although I now think Torquay could win at Chesterfield on Monday.
Stockport W, W, W, W, W, 83 Sutton Utd D, W, W, D, L, W, 83 Torquay Utd W, D, L, W, W, 83 Hartlepool D, W, W, W, W, 83
We need some goals!
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