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Post by Andy K on Mar 18, 2023 21:11:28 GMT
As we're in the last quarter of the season, thought it was time to take a look at which teams are looking most likely to be (or not to be) in League Two next season. For the time being, I'm going to try and avoid looking at play off places, and the lottery that invariably is.
Leaving L2
Barring a massive drop in form, it's looking like Leyton Orient will be playing L1 football next season. As for who joins them, it could be anyone from Stevenage, Northampton, Carlisle, Stockport and Bradford. Whilst Stevenage were looking dead certs to join Leyton Orient, their form since their FA exit has allowed others to take the initative, which Northampton, Bradford and Carlisle topping the current form table. Football web pages current predict the top 3 to be Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Northampton to go up automatically.
At the bottom, it's still looking like Rochdale (who now can't catch us) and looking more and more like Hartlepool as Crawley seem to have started winning games and with a couple of games in hand. Colchester however are looking in more danger than before on the account of their poor form.
Coming from the National League
Easier one this one. It will now be either Wrexham or Notts County. Wrexham's win today and Woking's defeat means that only they or Notts can win the league. The two title contenders play each other at the Racecourse Ground on Easter Monday, the outcome of which could well decide the league. Wrexham are currently 3 points clear with a game in hand.
Coming down from L1 Far from being doomed, FGR are not in a very good position. 13 points from safety and with a vastly inferior goal difference, it would be slightly mad to bet on them making enough of a recovery to keep their L1 status. Cambridge United also seem to be collapsing and are also 6 points from safety. As for the remaining two slots, it could be any two from Morecambe, MK Dons, Accrington Stanley and Oxford United. The last of those are currently highest of those 4 but their current form is only above the two bottom sides at the moment and are looking at getting sucked in. FWP predict that FGR, Cambridge, Morecambe and MK Dons going down.
Let's see how this shapes up over the next few weeks. Out of all of those I expect FGR to be confirmed to be the first new side in L2 next season.
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Post by is4 on Mar 19, 2023 9:31:54 GMT
Morning. What a good post/write up. There is a saying to go with this. W T S. (Watch this space )
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Post by information on Mar 23, 2023 17:56:22 GMT
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Post by davef on Mar 23, 2023 18:16:01 GMT
Rule it out ! Hartlepool would have to overturn a 12 point deficit in just 9 games, AND all but one of the other clubs below AFCW would have to overtake them too
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Post by sufc1898 on Mar 23, 2023 18:31:27 GMT
Totally agree One more win (or 3 draws) and they are safe. I think 45 points keeps you up.
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Post by Andy K on Mar 29, 2023 15:17:30 GMT
So a point on Saturday at Walsall, or Hartlepool failing to beat Swindon and we will mathematically be a League side for a third season.
Notts County and Wrexham are neck and neck, with Notts currently topping the table on gd, but having played 2 games more. Both sides have scored 100 goals, which is a stunningly high number.
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Post by davef on Mar 29, 2023 16:00:45 GMT
It is. Notts have played 41 games so far.
In 1984/5 the U's scored 115 goals in 42 league games. And followed it up with 109 the next season.
Just saying, like.
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oohaah
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Post by oohaah on Mar 29, 2023 16:09:07 GMT
Forest Damp's next four games are against top 10 clubs, although who would have thought they'd best Wednesday on Sunday?
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Post by davep on Mar 29, 2023 16:24:26 GMT
Andy is perfectly justified to feel rightly proud that we have all but secured a third season in the EFL - and both seasons so far we have done much more than just 'survive'. However, I ask myself how long can we continue to do this while remaining a small community club run largely by (excellent) volunteers. Everyone associated with the club has done a marvelous job to get us into the EFL - and so far keep us there. However, each Summer, bigger fish will look to lure away our best players. Sooner or later a much bigger club than ourselves is going to offer Matt an opportunity to fund his ambitions in a way his talent justifies. Sooner or later our ground - which is still in truth a non-league ground that we have improved (enormously) in order to be able to tick the necessary boxes - is potentially going to limit our opportunities to grow unless we move away from Gander Green Lane. Each season that a Scunthorpe or Rochdale is relegated and replaced by a Stockport or Wrexham, the competition is going to become that much more difficult the next season. We have all grown up loving Sutton for being the friendly community club that it is -but can we realistically remain like that and maintain a long time EFL existence - or even progress beyond that? Would we rather retain our historical identity even if that increases the risk of us falling back into non-league. If we were relegated, would we be able to survive in the National League or might that be the beginning of a downward spiral as it has been for a number of others? What changes might we need to make to become another 'Brentford' rather than risk becoming another Macclesfield? I'm sorry if this post sounds quite depressing - it isn't meant to be. I just think that sooner or later the club is going to need to decide what it wants to be in 5 or 10 years time - and what it is prepared to do (or not prepared to do) in order to make that happen. It may well be that our excellent directors already have plans in place for all of this.
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Post by backhome2016 on Mar 29, 2023 16:33:08 GMT
Davep - a truthful and pragmatic post. I agree with it almost word for word.
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oohaah
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Post by oohaah on Mar 29, 2023 16:37:07 GMT
Off topic though!
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garethl
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Post by garethl on Mar 29, 2023 16:43:49 GMT
For me the club have perfectly demonstrated that we can retain the special Sutton ethos and adapt to the football league. The challenges may be greater in this league but nevertheless the challenges are similar to what we would face a league below. You have to keep on building and improving to keep up and/or ahead. I don’t see the ground as a limiting factor, it’s improving and has a sizeable footprint to be more than adequate for needs unless something silly happens in an upwards direction.
The biggest challenge for me is how we engage our fans in ensuring our support is positive and rooting out any wrong uns. It’s a difficult one as a few can spoil for the majority. No doubt in my mind we’ve been crying out for fresh blood in the stands too so lots of positives there but as I say also a challenge. The worry also may be what happens to our support if we have a truly sticky patch as we need to keep those numbers rising.
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Post by is4 on Mar 29, 2023 17:43:57 GMT
There has been some great comments from Andy,davep and Gareth. Which I can see how they feel about the club.and possibly others may feel the same. I agree that if Matt and Jason were to be offered positions away from the club then there could be problems ( recruiting similar etc.) I agree with the comments about the ground in relation to other grounds and the need for upgrading etc.Ok this is ongoing as we know. We sure have come on a long way from earlier times. I, like others, hope we don't " crash " I can quite understand the position of some fans in regarding funds in these times. Looking forward.Yes we all know that next season we will be again a league club. And that we continue, as we are doing at present.
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Post by boomboom on Mar 29, 2023 17:57:10 GMT
So a point on Saturday at Walsall, or Hartlepool failing to beat Swindon and we will mathematically be a League side for a third season.
Notts County and Wrexham are neck and neck, with Notts currently topping the table on gd, but having played 2 games more. Both sides have scored 100 goals, which is a stunningly high number. Without wishing to be pedantic (oh, go on, I will then ) I expect that mathematical safety was achieved a while ago because the clubs below us will be playing each other in many matches and there's a maximum of 3 points up for grabs in each: hence it would be almost certainly be impossible to put us in the relegation places whatever the combination of results.
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Post by boomboom on Mar 29, 2023 18:09:42 GMT
However, each Summer, bigger fish will look to lure away our best players. Sooner or later a much bigger club than ourselves is going to offer Matt an opportunity to fund his ambitions in a way his talent justifies. That will happen whether we're a "community" club or not. In reality, all but a tiny handful of clubs in English, if not European or even world, football are "selling" clubs. Likewise for managers moving on.
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